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MOSAÏQUE révélé : recueil de variantes et de simulations du modèle MOSAÏQUE

  • Eric Heyer
  • Xavier Timbeau
  • Valérie Chauvin

[fre] L'OFCE a beaucoup utilisé le modèle MOSAÏQUE, durant les quinze années de son existence comme outil pour traiter des questions de politique économique et pour tenter de prévoir, plusieurs fois par année, le futur de Véconomie française. Cette représentation trimestrielle de Véconomie française est dans la lignée des grands modèles économétriques français. La mise en évidence des propriétés variantielles du modèle et des indications quantitatives sur la transmission des chocs dans l'économie devrait faciliter la tâche des utilisateurs potentiels de modèles macroéconomiques français alors que les simulations fournissent des ordres de grandeur utiles pour l'analyse de la conjoncture et des politiques économiques. [eng] OFCE has been using the MOSAIQUE model intensively for fifteen years for both studying fiscal policy issues and forecasting. This quarterly model of the French economy belongs to the lineage of the French « big » econometrical models. Our main aim is to present the characteristics of this model and give quantitative evaluations of the way shocks propagate in the economy. The knowledge of these characteristics should ease the task of potential users of this macro-model, whereas simulations provide useful magnitude order for the analysis of current economie outlook and fiscal policy. Computing the multiplier shows the main characteristics of the model. Then, a first group of simulations has been conducted, to compare different tools of fiscal policy. Finally, twelve types of simulations were computed, which cover a wide range of shocks, on the demand or supply side, on behaviour, on fiscal policy. JEL Codes : C5, E12, E17

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File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.3406/ofce.1999.1695
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Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Revue de l'OFCE.

Volume (Year): 70 (1999)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 193-236

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Handle: RePEc:prs:rvofce:ofce_0751-6614_1999_num_70_1_1695
Note: DOI:10.3406/ofce.1999.1695
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.persee.fr/web/revues/home/prescript/revue/ofce

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