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Consommation : l'effet du vieillissement

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  • Dominique Darmon
  • Jean-Michel Hourriez
  • Philippe L'Hardy

Abstract

[eng] Consumption: the Effects of an Aging Population - The aging of the population has become a major phenomenon and will reach its full effect by 2010. Since the needs of older households differ noticeably from those of young ones, this aging is, in the long term, likely to modify the structure of the consumption of French households. . Demographic forecasts for households, which are available for the next twenty years, make it possible to assess the effects that an aging population would have on . consumption for the year 2010. However, even if they are not negligible in certain fields, such as health, food and transportation, they remain secondary in comparison with the evolution of the standard of living. The influence of a redistribution of the income of the working population to retired people, resulting from an increase in the volume of retirement pensions, would be similar to the direct effects of an aging population. [spa] Consumo: el efecto del envejecimiento - El envejecimiento de la población se transforma en un fenómeno mayor que cubrirá toda amplitud al promediar el año 2010. En la medida en que las necesidades de los hogares de mayor edad difieren sensiblemente de aquellas que tienen los jóvenes, el envejecimiento sera susceptible de modificar a largo plazo la estructura del consumo de los hogares franceses. . Las proyeeciones demográficas de los hogares realizadas por un período de 20 años permiten evaluar para el año 2010 los efectos del envejecimiento sobre el consumo. Ahora bien, aunque no se deben desdenar estos en ciertos ámbitos como la salud, la alimentación y los transportes, siguen siendo secundarios con relación a los sectores vinculados con la progresión del nivel de vida. Una redistribución de los ingresos de los activos a los jubilados, resultante del aumento del volumen de las jubilaciones, tendría una influencia análoga a los efectos directos del envejecimiento. [fre] Le vieillissement de la population devient un phénomène majeur, et prendra tout son effet d'ici 201 0. Dans la mesure où les besoins des ménages les plus âgés diffèrent sensiblement de ceux des ménages jeunes, ce vieillissement est susceptible de modifier à long terme la structure de la consommation des ménages français. . Les projections démographiques de ménages, disponibles sur vingt ans, permettent d'évaluer, pour l'année 2010, . les effets du vieillissement sur la consommation. Or, même s'ils ne sont pas négligeables dans certains domaines comme la santé, l'alimentation et les transports, ils restent secondaires par rapport à ceux de la progression du niveau de vie. Une redistribution des revenus des actifs vers les retraités, résultant de l'accroissement du volume des retraites, aurait une influence analogue aux effets directs du vieillissement.

Suggested Citation

  • Dominique Darmon & Jean-Michel Hourriez & Philippe L'Hardy, 1991. "Consommation : l'effet du vieillissement," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 243(1), pages 89-104.
  • Handle: RePEc:prs:ecstat:estat_0336-1454_1991_num_243_1_5578
    DOI: 10.3406/estat.1991.5578
    Note: DOI:10.3406/estat.1991.5578
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Louis Dirn & Henri Mendras & Laurence Duboys Fresney, 1984. "Le troisième âge animera la société française," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 8(1), pages 141-161.
    2. Dominique Darmon & Philippe L'Hardy, 1986. "Consommation : santé et loisirs au premier plan," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 190(1), pages 55-69.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jacques Le Cacheux & Vincent Touzé, 2003. "Vieillissement et richesse des nations," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 84(1), pages 47-91.
    2. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2087 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Jean-Michel Hourriez & Bernard Legris, 1995. "Le niveau de vie relatif des personnes âgées," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 283(1), pages 137-158.
    4. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/2087 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Jean-Michel Hourriez, 1993. "La consommation médicale à l'horizon 2010," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 265(1), pages 17-30.
    6. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/2087 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Marceline Bodier, 1999. "Les effets d'âge et de génération sur le niveau et la structure de la consommation," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 324(1), pages 163-180.

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