Application of FIGARCH and EWMA Models on Stock Indices PX and BUX
Volatility of the financial time series belongs to the crucial estimated parameters in finance (e.g. in risk management, derivative pricing). It is well known, that volatility varies in time, so that new approaches of volatility modeling have appeared. In this paper two models of the conditional heteroskedasticity - fractionally integrated GARCH (FIGARCH) and EWMA are presented. These models are illustrated on the daily historical returns of stock index PX and index BUX. Standard tests of normality, autocorrelation and conditional heteroskedasticity are applied to these log-return time series and before estimating the models, which confirm a usability of the conditional heteroskedasticity models. Empirical results of the Rescale Range analysis (R/S) indicate a long memory in the volatility process of PX index and the first 40 autocorrelations of the square log-returns show their hyperbolic decay. The volatility models are estimated by quasi-maximum likelihood method with Student´s t-distribution and used to the calculation of the 1-day 95% and 99% Value at Risk values. Finally, the validity of the models is verified by Kupiec´s test, TUFF and Christoffersen´s test. These tests demonstrate, that the FIGARCH model is a suitable alternative to the EWMA model in the Value at Risk calculation.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 2011 (2011)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: nam. W. Churchilla 4, 130 67 Praha 3|
Phone: (02) 24 09 51 11
Fax: (02) 24 22 06 57
Web page: http://www.vse.cz/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Postal: Redakce Acta Oeconomica Pragensia, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, nám. W. Churchilla 4, 130 67 Praha 3|
Web: http://www.vse.cz/aop/ Email:
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim & Mikkelsen, Hans Ole, 1996.
"Fractionally integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 3-30, September.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "RATS programs to replicate Baillie, Bollerslev, Mikkelson FIGARCH results," Statistical Software Components RTZ00009, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Paul H. Kupiec, 1995. "Techniques for verifying the accuracy of risk measurement models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 95-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Granger, C. W. J., 1980. "Long memory relationships and the aggregation of dynamic models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 227-238, October.
- Benoit Mandelbrot, 2015. "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: THE WORLD SCIENTIFIC HANDBOOK OF FUTURES MARKETS, chapter 3, pages 39-78 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
- Benoit Mandelbrot, 1963. "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36, pages 394-394.
- Christoffersen, Peter F, 1998. "Evaluating Interval Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 841-862, November. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:prg:jnlaop:v:2011:y:2011:i:4:id:338:p:25-38. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Frantisek Sokolovsky)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.