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Partial differential equation models for invasive species spread in the presence of spatial heterogeneity

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  • Elliott H Hughes
  • Miguel Moyers-Gonzalez
  • Rua Murray
  • Phillip L Wilson

Abstract

Models of invasive species spread often assume that landscapes are spatially homogeneous; thus simplifying analysis but potentially reducing accuracy. We extend a recently developed partial differential equation model for invasive conifer spread to account for spatial heterogeneity in parameter values and introduce a method to obtain key outputs (e.g. spread rates) from computational simulations. Simulations produce patterns of spatial spread which appear qualitatively similar to observed patterns in grassland ecosystems invaded by exotic conifers, validating our spatially explicit strategy. We find that incorporating spatial variation in different parameters does not significantly affect the evolution of invasions (which are characterised by a long quiescent period followed by rapid evolution towards to a constant rate of invasion) but that distributional assumptions can have a significant impact on the spread rate of invasions. Our work demonstrates that spatial variation in site-suitability or other parameters can have a significant impact on invasions and must be considered when designing models of invasive species spread.

Suggested Citation

  • Elliott H Hughes & Miguel Moyers-Gonzalez & Rua Murray & Phillip L Wilson, 2024. "Partial differential equation models for invasive species spread in the presence of spatial heterogeneity," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 19(4), pages 1-24, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0300968
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0300968
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jones, Hannah & White, Andrew & Lurz, Peter & Shuttleworth, Craig, 2017. "Mathematical models for invasive species management: Grey squirrel control on Anglesey," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 359(C), pages 276-284.
    2. Danish A. Ahmed & Phillip J. Haubrock & Ross N. Cuthbert & Alok Bang & Ismael Soto & Paride Balzani & Ali Serhan Tarkan & Rafael L. Macêdo & Laís Carneiro & Thomas W. Bodey & Francisco J. Oficialdegui, 2023. "Recent advances in availability and synthesis of the economic costs of biological invasions," Post-Print hal-04148456, HAL.
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