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Generalized Gamma-CUSUM control chart with application of COVID-19 deaths

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  • Olatunde Adebayo Adeoti
  • Kayode Samuel Adekeye

Abstract

The increase in the number of infections and the worrisome state of mortality linked to the COVID-19 pandemic demand an optimal statistical model and efficient monitoring scheme to analyze the deaths. This paper aims to model the COVID-19 mortality in Nigeria using four non-normal distributions grouped under the generalized gamma distribution, by specifying the best-fit distribution to model the number of deaths linked to the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, a control chart to monitor the COVID-19 deaths based on the best-fit distribution is proposed. The performance of the proposed Gamma-CUSUM chart as a monitoring scheme was compared with the standard normal-CUSUM chart. The results revealed that the Gamma-CUSUM chart first signals a change in the number of deaths on day 68 while there was no change in the number of deaths for the standard normal-CUSUM chart. Also, the exact point of change was visible on the Gamma-CUSUM chart which was impossible on a standard normal-CUSUM control chart.

Suggested Citation

  • Olatunde Adebayo Adeoti & Kayode Samuel Adekeye, 2023. "Generalized Gamma-CUSUM control chart with application of COVID-19 deaths," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 18(2), pages 1-13, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0281360
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0281360
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    1. Nadarajah, Saralees & Gupta, Arjun K., 2007. "A generalized gamma distribution with application to drought data," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 1-7.
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