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A spatial-temporal analysis at the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic and its determinants: The case of Recife neighborhoods, Brazil

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  • Arthur Pimentel Gomes de Souza
  • Caroline Maria de Miranda Mota
  • Amanda Gadelha Ferreira Rosa
  • Ciro José Jardim de Figueiredo
  • Ana Lúcia Bezerra Candeias

Abstract

The outbreak of COVID-19 has led to there being a worldwide socio-economic crisis, with major impacts on developing countries. Understanding the dynamics of the disease and its driving factors, on a small spatial scale, might support strategies to control infections. This paper explores the impact of the COVID-19 on neighborhoods of Recife, Brazil, for which we examine a set of drivers that combines socio-economic factors and the presence of non-stop services. A three-stage methodology was conducted by conducting a statistical and spatial analysis, including clusters and regression models. COVID-19 data were investigated concerning ten dates between April and July 2020. Hotspots of the most affected regions and their determinant effects were highlighted. We have identified that clusters of confirmed cases were carried from a well-developed neighborhood to socially deprived areas, along with the emergence of hotspots of the case-fatality rate. The influence of age-groups, income, level of education, and the access to essential services on the spread of COVID-19 was also verified. The recognition of variables that influence the spatial spread of the disease becomes vital for pinpointing the most vulnerable areas. Consequently, specific prevention actions can be developed for these places, especially in heterogeneous cities.

Suggested Citation

  • Arthur Pimentel Gomes de Souza & Caroline Maria de Miranda Mota & Amanda Gadelha Ferreira Rosa & Ciro José Jardim de Figueiredo & Ana Lúcia Bezerra Candeias, 2022. "A spatial-temporal analysis at the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic and its determinants: The case of Recife neighborhoods, Brazil," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(5), pages 1-22, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0268538
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0268538
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Débora Pereira & Caroline Mota, 2016. "Human Development Index Based on ELECTRE TRI-C Multicriteria Method: An Application in the City of Recife," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 125(1), pages 19-45, January.
    2. Yongzhu Xiong & Yunpeng Wang & Feng Chen & Mingyong Zhu, 2020. "Spatial Statistics and Influencing Factors of the COVID-19 Epidemic at Both Prefecture and County Levels in Hubei Province, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(11), pages 1-26, May.
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