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Dam deformation forecasting using SVM-DEGWO algorithm based on phase space reconstruction

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  • Mingjun Li
  • Jiangyang Pan
  • Yaolai Liu
  • Yazhou Wang
  • Wenchuan Zhang
  • Junxing Wang

Abstract

A hybrid model integrating chaos theory, support vector machine (SVM) and the difference evolution grey wolf optimization (DEGWO) algorithm is developed to analyze and predict dam deformation. Firstly, the chaotic characteristics of the dam deformation time series will be identified, mainly using the Lyapunov exponent method, the correlation dimension method and the kolmogorov entropy method. Secondly, the hybrid model is established for dam deformation forecasting. Taking SVM as the core, the deformation time series is reconstructed in phase space to determine the input variables of SVM, and the GWO algorithm is improved to realize the optimization of SVM parameters. Prior to this, the effectiveness of DEGWO algorithm based on the fusion of the difference evolution (DE) and GWO algorithm has been verified by 15 sets of test functions in CEC 2005. Finally, take the actual monitoring displacement of Jinping I super-high arch dam as examples. The engineering application examples show that the PSR-SVM-DEGWO model established performs better in terms of fitting and prediction accuracy compared with existing models.

Suggested Citation

  • Mingjun Li & Jiangyang Pan & Yaolai Liu & Yazhou Wang & Wenchuan Zhang & Junxing Wang, 2022. "Dam deformation forecasting using SVM-DEGWO algorithm based on phase space reconstruction," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(6), pages 1-39, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0267434
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0267434
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Shu-Xia Li & Jie-Sheng Wang, 2015. "Dynamic Modeling of Steam Condenser and Design of PI Controller Based on Grey Wolf Optimizer," Mathematical Problems in Engineering, Hindawi, vol. 2015, pages 1-9, December.
    2. Mingjun Li & Junxing Wang, 2019. "An Empirical Comparison of Multiple Linear Regression and Artificial Neural Network for Concrete Dam Deformation Modelling," Mathematical Problems in Engineering, Hindawi, vol. 2019, pages 1-13, April.
    3. Yan Wei & Ni Ni & Dayou Liu & Huiling Chen & Mingjing Wang & Qiang Li & Xiaojun Cui & Haipeng Ye, 2017. "An Improved Grey Wolf Optimization Strategy Enhanced SVM and Its Application in Predicting the Second Major," Mathematical Problems in Engineering, Hindawi, vol. 2017, pages 1-12, February.
    4. Yan Jiang & Xin Bao & Shaonan Hao & Hongtao Zhao & Xuyong Li & Xianing Wu, 2020. "Monthly Streamflow Forecasting Using ELM-IPSO Based on Phase Space Reconstruction," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(11), pages 3515-3531, September.
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