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Modeling and Analyzing the Transmission Dynamics of HBV Epidemic in Xinjiang, China

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  • Tailei Zhang
  • Kai Wang
  • Xueliang Zhang

Abstract

Hepatitis B is an infectious disease caused by the hepatitis B virus (HBV) which affects livers. In this paper, we formulate a hepatitis B model to study the transmission dynamics of hepatitis B in Xinjiang, China. The epidemic model involves an exponential birth rate and vertical transmission. For a better understanding of HBV transmission dynamics, we analyze the dynamic behavior of the model. The modified reproductive number σ is obtained. When σ 1, the disease-free equilibrium is unstable and the disease is uniformly persistent. In the simulation, parameters are chosen to fit public data in Xinjiang. The simulation indicates that the cumulated HBV infection number in Xinjiang will attain about 600,000 cases unless there are stronger or more effective control measures by the end of 2017. Sensitive analysis results show that enhancing the vaccination rate for newborns in Xinjiang is very effective to stop the transmission of HBV. Hence, we recommend that all infants in Xinjiang receive the hepatitis B vaccine as soon as possible after birth.

Suggested Citation

  • Tailei Zhang & Kai Wang & Xueliang Zhang, 2015. "Modeling and Analyzing the Transmission Dynamics of HBV Epidemic in Xinjiang, China," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(9), pages 1-14, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0138765
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0138765
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hongyu Miao & Carrie Dykes & Lisa M. Demeter & Hulin Wu, 2009. "Differential Equation Modeling of HIV Viral Fitness Experiments: Model Identification, Model Selection, and Multimodel Inference," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 65(1), pages 292-300, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hussain, Ghulam & Khan, Amir & Zahri, Mostafa & Zaman, Gul, 2022. "Ergodic stationary distribution of stochastic epidemic model for HBV with double saturated incidence rates and vaccination," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    2. Liping Zhang & Li Wang & Yanling Zheng & Kai Wang & Xueliang Zhang & Yujian Zheng, 2017. "Time Prediction Models for Echinococcosis Based on Gray System Theory and Epidemic Dynamics," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-14, March.
    3. Huo, Hai-Feng & Jing, Shuang-Lin & Wang, Xun-Yang & Xiang, Hong, 2020. "Modeling and analysis of a H1N1 model with relapse and effect of Twitter," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 560(C).
    4. Khan, Tahir & Khan, Amir & Zaman, Gul, 2018. "The extinction and persistence of the stochastic hepatitis B epidemic model," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 123-128.
    5. Shah, Syed Azhar Ali & Khan, Muhammad Altaf & Farooq, Muhammad & Ullah, Saif & Alzahrani, Ebraheem O., 2020. "A fractional order model for Hepatitis B virus with treatment via Atangana–Baleanu derivative," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 538(C).

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