Rare Variants Association Analysis in Large-Scale Sequencing Studies at the Single Locus Level

Genetic association analyses of rare variants in next-generation sequencing (NGS) studies are fundamentally challenging due to the presence of a very large number of candidate variants at extremely low minor allele frequencies. Recent developments often focus on pooling multiple variants to provide association analysis at the gene instead of the locus level. Nonetheless, pinpointing individual variants is a critical goal for genomic researches as such information can facilitate the precise delineation of molecular mechanisms and functions of genetic factors on diseases. Due to the extreme rarity of mutations and high-dimensionality, significances of causal variants cannot easily stand out from those of noncausal ones. Consequently, standard false-positive control procedures, such as the Bonferroni and false discovery rate (FDR), are often impractical to apply, as a majority of the causal variants can only be identified along with a few but unknown number of noncausal variants. To provide informative analysis of individual variants in large-scale sequencing studies, we propose the Adaptive False-Negative Control (AFNC) procedure that can include a large proportion of causal variants with high confidence by introducing a novel statistical inquiry to determine those variants that can be confidently dispatched as noncausal. The AFNC provides a general framework that can accommodate for a variety of models and significance tests. The procedure is computationally efficient and can adapt to the underlying proportion of causal variants and quality of significance rankings. Extensive simulation studies across a plethora of scenarios demonstrate that the AFNC is advantageous for identifying individual rare variants, whereas the Bonferroni and FDR are exceedingly over-conservative for rare variants association studies. In the analyses of the CoLaus dataset, AFNC has identified individual variants most responsible for gene-level significances. Moreover, single-variant results using the AFNC have been successfully applied to infer related genes with annotation information.Author Summary: Next-generation sequencing technologies have allowed genetic association studies of complex traits at the single base-pair resolution, where most genetic variants have extremely low mutation frequencies. These rare variants have been the focus of modern statistical-computational genomics due to their potential to explain missing disease heritability. The identification of individual rare variants associated with diseases can provide new biological insights and enable the precise delineation of disease mechanisms. However, due to the extreme rarity of mutations and large numbers of variants, significances of causative variants tend to be mixed inseparably with a few noncausative ones, and standard multiple testing procedures controlling for false positives fail to provide a meaningful way to include a large proportion of the causative variants. To address the challenge of detecting weak biological signals, we propose a novel statistical procedure, based on false-negative control, to provide a practical approach for variant inclusion in large-scale sequencing studies. By determining those variants that can be confidently dispatched as noncausative, the proposed procedure offers an objective selection of a modest number of potentially causative variants at the single-locus level. Results can be further prioritized or used to infer disease-associated genes with annotation information.