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Impact of Public Debt on the Economic Growth of Pakistan

Author

Listed:
  • Naeem Akram

    (Centre for Poverty Reduction and Social Policy Development, Islamabad)

Abstract

Over the years Pakistan has failed to collect enough revenues for financing of its budget. Consequently, the problem of twin deficits emerged and to finance the developmental activities government has to rely on public external and domestic debt. The positive effects of public debt relate to the fact that in resource-starved economies debt financing if done properly leads to higher growth and adds to their capacity to service and repay public debt. The negative effects work through two main channels— i.e., ?Debt Overhang? and ?Crowding Out? effects. The present study examines the consequences of public debt for economic growth and investment in Pakistan for the period 1972-2009. It develops a hybrid model that explicitly incorporates the role of public debt in growth equations. As the some variables are I (1) and other are I (0) so Autoregressive Distributed Lag(ARDL) technique has been applied to estimate the model. Study finds that public external debt has negative relationship with per capita GDP and investment confirming the existence of ?Debt Overhang effect?. However, due to insignificant relationships of debt servicing with investment and per capita GDP, the existence of the crowding out hypothesis could not be confirmed. Similarly, domestic debt has a negative relationship with investment and per capita GDP. In other words, it seems to have crowded out private investment.

Suggested Citation

  • Naeem Akram, 2011. "Impact of Public Debt on the Economic Growth of Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 50(4), pages 599-615.
    • Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:50:y:2011:i:4:p:599-615
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    File URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2011/Volume4/599-615.pdf
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Bassey Okon Ebi & Imoke Douglas Imoke, 2017. "Public Debt Carrying Capacity and Debt Transmission Channels: The Nigerian Experience," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(5), pages 41-52.
    2. repec:thr:techub:10027:y:2022:i:1:p:445-451 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Javeria Naeem & Saadia Sherbaz, 2016. "Indebtedness and Poverty: The Case of Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 55(4), pages 823-835.
    4. Rabia Zafar & Muhammad Maleeq-Ul-Islam Zafar, 2022. "Impact of External Debt on Economic Growth Rate: An Empirical Evidence from Pakistan," Technium Social Sciences Journal, Technium Science, vol. 27(1), pages 445-451, January.
    5. Sagire, Lucas & Muriu, Peter W., 2021. "Economic Growth and Public Debt Threshold: New Evidence from An Emerging Economy," Journal of Economic Development, The Economic Research Institute, Chung-Ang University, vol. 46(4), pages 105-120, December.
    6. Hasan Shahzad & Attiya Yasmin Javid, 2015. "Impact of Debt on Aggregate Investment and Productivity in Developing Asian Countries," PIDE-Working Papers 2015:127, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    7. Olugbenga Onafowora & Oluwole Owoye, 2019. "Impact of external debt shocks on economic growth in Nigeria: a SVAR analysis," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 52(2), pages 157-179, May.
    8. Ibrahim Mohammed Adamu & Rajah Rasiah, 2016. "External Debt and Growth Dynamics in Nigeria," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 28(3), pages 291-303, September.
    9. Nermin Yasar, 2021. "The Causal Relationship Between Foreign Debt and Economic Growth: Evidence from Commonwealth Independent States," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 56(4), pages 415-429, November.
    10. Nurfilzah Arham & Mohd Shamlie Salisi & Rozita Uji Mohammed & Jasman Tuyon, 2020. "Impact of macroeconomic cyclical indicators and country governance on bank non-performing loans in Emerging Asia," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 10(4), pages 707-726, December.
    11. Bardhyl Dauti & Shiret Elezi, 2022. "Economic growth in the Central East European Union and the Western Balkan countries in the course of Stability and Growth Pact and COVID-19," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 40(1), pages 29-61.
    12. Manamba EPAPHRA & William MESIET, 2021. "The external debt burden and economic growth in Africa: a panel data analysis," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(2(627), S), pages 175-206, Summer.
    13. Taha Zaghdoudi, 2020. "Threshold Effect in the Relationship Between External Debt and Economic Growth: A Dynamic Panel Threshold Specification," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 18(2), pages 447-456, June.
    14. Adeela Hussain & Muhammad Irfan Chani, 2018. "Remittances, Foreign Debt and Economic Growth: A Cross Country Analysis," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 7(2), pages 59-71, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Public Debt; Economic Growth; Investment; ARDL;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • O43 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Institutions and Growth
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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