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Real Exchange Rate, Exports, and Imports Movements: A Trivariate Analysis

Author

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  • M. Ali Kemal

    (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.)

  • Usman Qadir

    (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.)

Abstract

The exchange rate exerts a strong influence on a country’s trade. It is depicted from the high correlation between the real exchange rate and exports (0.90) and that between the real exchange rate and imports (0.88). In the present-day scenario of falling levels of tariff and a reduced number of non-tariff barriers, the exchange rate has assumed a crucial role in influencing the trade deficit. Imports have a very significant association with exports as shown by the correlation between exports and imports (0.97). The increase in exports in the absence of surplus stocks requires an increase in production, which in turn requires capital and raw material. We analysed the long-run relationship and the short-run dynamics among the three variables. It is concluded that there exists a long-run relationship between real exchange rate, exports, and imports; and real exchange rate is negatively associated with the exports and positively associated with the imports. In the short-run, imports and exports adjust towards their equilibrium when there is disequilibrium. But the adjustment in the imports is greater than the adjustment in the exports. Moreover, exports do not respond to the shock caused by the real exchange rate, but imports respond to the sudden shock in the real exchange rate. The study ends up with the note that the sudden movements in the real exchange rate do not affect exports. Therefore, Pakistan should not worry about exchange rate shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • M. Ali Kemal & Usman Qadir, 2005. "Real Exchange Rate, Exports, and Imports Movements: A Trivariate Analysis," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 44(2), pages 177-195.
    • Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:44:y:2005:i:2:p:177-195
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Snober Fazal & Muhammad Azhar Bhatti & Tusawar Iftikhar Ahmad, 2019. "Sectorial growth, Exchange rate and Fiscal policy in Developing Economies: The Interlinkages," iRASD Journal of Economics, International Research Alliance for Sustainable Development (iRASD), vol. 1(2), pages 68-81, December.
    2. Amjad Naveed & Ghulam Shabbir & Shabib Haider Syed & Muhammad Ashfaq & Muhammad Ali Khan, 2022. "Can a path to peace promote export growth? Evidence from Pakistan and its trading partners," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 56(5), pages 3309-3324, October.
    3. Ali, Sharafat, 2013. "Cointegration Analysis of Exports and Imports: The Case of Pakistan Economy," MPRA Paper 49295, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Brun,Martin & Gambetta,Juan Pedro & Varela,Gonzalo J., 2020. "Slow Rockets and Fast Feathers or the Link between Exchange Rates and Exports : A Case Study for Pakistan," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9353, The World Bank.
    5. Destaw M. Mazengia & Xia Youfu, 2021. "The Moderating Effect of Institutional Environment on Oilseed Export Competitiveness in Sub-Saharan African Countries," International Journal of Science and Business, IJSAB International, vol. 5(4), pages 189-206.
    6. Mitra Lal Devkota, 2019. "Testing The Causality And Cointegration Between Exports, Imports, And Exchange Rates: Evidence From India," Annals - Economy Series, Constantin Brancusi University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1, pages 5-13, February.
    7. Matthew McCartney, 2015. "The Missing Economic Magic: The Failure of Trade Liberalization and Exchange Rate Devaluation in Pakistan, 1980–2012," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 20(Special E), pages 59-86, September.
    8. Hafsa Hina, 2020. "Correction of Trade Deficit through Depreciation - A Misdirected Policy: An Empirical Evidence from Pakistan," PIDE-Working Papers 2020:24, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    9. Adedotun Joseph Adenigbo & Joash Mageto & Rose Luke, 2023. "Effect of shipping trade on economic growth in Nigeria: the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) approach," Journal of Shipping and Trade, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 1-18, December.
    10. Mahmood, Asif & Zahoor, Muhammad Awais, 2021. "Role of Global Value Chains and Exchange Rate: An Empirical Examination in case of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 115958, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Ahmed Pirzada, 2019. "Do exchange rate shocks matter for Pakistan's export performance?," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 19/711, School of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
    12. Pasrun Adam & Pasrun Adam & Rosnawintang Rosnawintang & Ambo Wonua Nusantara & Abd Aziz Muthalib, 2017. "A Model of the Dynamic of the Relationship between Exchange Rate and Indonesia's Export," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(1), pages 255-261.
    13. Pabai Fofanah, 2020. "Impact of real exchange rate fluctuations on aggregate cocoa and coffee exports in Sierra Leone," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 12(2), pages 34-56.
    14. Hina, Hafsa & Qayyum, Abdul, 2015. "Exchange Rate Determination and Out of Sample Forecasting: Cointegration Analysis," MPRA Paper 61997, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Hafsa Hina, 2021. "What Do We Know of Trade Elasticities?," PIDE Knowledge Brief 2021:30, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.

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