IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/pal/marecl/v16y2014i1p72-91.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Forecasting period charter rates of VLCC tankers through neural networks: A comparison of alternative approaches

Author

Listed:
  • André A P Santos

    (Departamento de Economia, Campus Universitário Reitor João David Ferreira Lima, Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina, CEP: 88040-970, Florianópolis, SC, Brazil)

  • Luciano N Junkes

    (PETROBRAS – Petróleo Brasileiro S.A., Av. República do Chile, 500 – Centro, CEP: 20031-170, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil)

  • Floriano C M Pires Jr

    (Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, COPPE – Cidade Universitária, Centro de Tecnologia, Ilha do Fundão, CEP: 21945-970, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil)

Abstract

Volume-wise, seaborne crude oil represents close to 45 per cent of all internationally traded crude oil – thus remaining as the modern world primary source of energy. The usual focus in seaborne freight rate forecasting literature is the spot rate, whereas, on the other hand, a limited amount of literature has been directed towards period charter rates. To the same extent, there is a scarce amount of literature available dealing with the use of artificial neural networks (NNs) in forecasting seaborne transport market rates. This article focuses on applying NNs to period charter rates forecasting of very large crude carriers. The performance achieved for 1- and 3-year period charter rate time series by two different NN models (multi-layer perceptron and radial basis function (RBF)) is benchmarked against a more elementary performance delivered by an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. We find that NN modelling delivers encouraging end results outperforming the benchmark model (ARIMA). We can also point out that NN using RBFs delivers the best overall predictive performance.

Suggested Citation

  • André A P Santos & Luciano N Junkes & Floriano C M Pires Jr, 2014. "Forecasting period charter rates of VLCC tankers through neural networks: A comparison of alternative approaches," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 16(1), pages 72-91, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:pal:marecl:v:16:y:2014:i:1:p:72-91
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/mel/journal/v16/n1/pdf/mel201320a.pdf
    File Function: Link to full text PDF
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    File URL: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/mel/journal/v16/n1/full/mel201320a.html
    File Function: Link to full text HTML
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:pal:marecl:v:19:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1057_mel.2016.1 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pal:marecl:v:16:y:2014:i:1:p:72-91. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sonal Shukla) or (Rebekah McClure). General contact details of provider: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.