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How many dentists does Sri Lanka need? Modelling to inform policy decisions

Author

Listed:
  • Sally Brailsford

    (University of Southampton, Southampton, UK)

  • Dileep De Silva

    (Ministry of Health, Colombo, Sri Lanka)

Abstract

This paper describes a model that has been used to inform government policy in Sri Lanka. The model has two components, representing supply and demand for dental-care services. The supply-side component (the dental workforce model) uses system dynamics to represent the career progression of dentists from recruitment and training at the University Dental School, through different career paths through to retirement. The demand-side model calculates a range of future demand scenarios for dental care, based on different assumptions about Sri Lanka’s potential future economic development. The combined model was used by the Sri Lankan government to plan better provision of state-funded dental care and the future university intake of dental students. Data collection for both models was challenging, and required some innovative research. The model itself, and its successful application, raise a number of wider issues concerning model implementation and acceptability by clients and model users.

Suggested Citation

  • Sally Brailsford & Dileep De Silva, 2015. "How many dentists does Sri Lanka need? Modelling to inform policy decisions," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 66(9), pages 1566-1577, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:jorsoc:v:66:y:2015:i:9:p:1566-1577
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Negar Darabi & Niyousha Hosseinichimeh, 2020. "System dynamics modeling in health and medicine: a systematic literature review," System Dynamics Review, System Dynamics Society, vol. 36(1), pages 29-73, January.
    2. Madhan Balasubramanian & Aliya Hasan & Suruchi Ganbavale & Anfal Alolayah & Jennifer Gallagher, 2021. "Planning the Future Oral Health Workforce: A Rapid Review of Supply, Demand and Need Models, Data Sources and Skill Mix Considerations," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(6), pages 1-33, March.
    3. Lane, David & Husemann, Elke & Holland, Darren & Khaled, Abdul, 2019. "Understanding foodborne transmission mechanisms for Norovirus: A study for the UK's Food Standards Agency," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 275(2), pages 721-736.
    4. Willis, Graham & Cave, Siôn & Kunc, Martin, 2018. "Strategic workforce planning in healthcare: A multi-methodology approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 267(1), pages 250-263.
    5. Chang, Angela Y. & Ogbuoji, Osondu & Atun, Rifat & Verguet, Stéphane, 2017. "Dynamic modeling approaches to characterize the functioning of health systems: A systematic review of the literature," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 194(C), pages 160-167.

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