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Macro-Experimental Economics in the Kyrgyz Republic: Social Security Sustainability and Pension Reform

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  • Charles M Becker

    (Department of Economics, University of Colorado at Denver)

  • Sergey Paltsev

    (Department of Economics, University of Colorado at Boulder)

Abstract

Despite a decade of transition, pension systems in formerly socialist countries still desperately need viable reform. Few viable reform options exist, due to the near absence of capital markets, the collapse of formal sector employment, and huge differences between urban and rural sectors. This paper assesses packages advocated by different international agencies, and considers their sensitivity to varying economic and demographic assumptions. Failure to account for demographic-economic interactions strongly biases forecasts. The divergent results from projections made under different assumptions imply that policymakers should examine the realism of policy suggestions (and associated actuarial forecasts) very carefully. Comparative Economic Studies (2001) 43, 1–34; doi:10.1057/ces.2001.12

Suggested Citation

  • Charles M Becker & Sergey Paltsev, 2001. "Macro-Experimental Economics in the Kyrgyz Republic: Social Security Sustainability and Pension Reform," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 43(3), pages 1-34, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:compes:v:43:y:2001:i:3:p:1-34
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    Cited by:

    1. Becker, Charles M. & Seitenova, Ai-Gul S. & Urzhumova, Dina S., 2005. "Pension Reform in Central Asia: An Overview," Discussion Paper 260, Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    2. Sheila Rose Darmaraj & Suresh Narayanan, 2019. "The Long-Term Financial Sustainability of the Civil Service Pension Scheme in Malaysia," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 18(1), pages 155-178, Winter/Sp.
    3. Zeng Yi, 2006. "Estimating the impacts of demographic and policy changes on pension deficit : a simple method and application to China," Labor Economics Working Papers 21822, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    4. Zeng Yi, 2006. "Estimating The Impacts of Demographic and Policy Changes On Pension Deficit A Simple Method and Application to China," SCAPE Policy Research Working Paper Series 0612, National University of Singapore, Department of Economics, SCAPE.
    5. Becker, Charles & Paltsev, Sergey V., 2004. "Economic Consequences of Demographic Change in the Former USSR: Social Transfers in the Kyrgyz Republic," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(11), pages 1849-1870, November.

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