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Quantitative Approaches to Fiscal Sustainability Analysis: A Case Study of Turkey since the Crisis of 2001

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  • Nina Budina
  • Sweder van Wijnbergen

Abstract

This case study of fiscal sustainability in Turkey after the crisis in 2001 reviews and extends quantitative approaches to fiscal sustainability analysis and brings them together in a user-friendly tool applicable in a data-sparse environment. It combines a dynamic simulations approach with a steady-state consistency approach. It also incorporates user-defined stress tests and stochastic simulations to deal with uncertainty. And it derives the future distribution of debt-output ratios, evaluating the fiscal adjustment required to stabilize them. Value at Risk analysis shows that considerable risks remain unless explicit feedback rules from debt surprises to the primary surplus are implemented. Copyright The Author 2008. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / the world bank . All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Nina Budina & Sweder van Wijnbergen, 2008. "Quantitative Approaches to Fiscal Sustainability Analysis: A Case Study of Turkey since the Crisis of 2001," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 23(1), pages 119-140, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:wbecrv:v:23:y:2008:i:1:p:119-140
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/wber/lhn011
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    Cited by:

    1. Truong Nguyen, 2013. "Estimating India's Fiscal Reaction Function," ASARC Working Papers 2013-05, The Australian National University, Australia South Asia Research Centre.
    2. Campos, Eduardo Lima & Cysne, Rubens Penha, 2017. "A time-varying fiscal reaction function for Brazil," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 795, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    3. Vdovychenko Artem, 2016. "Fiscal Policy Rection and Sustainability of Fiscal Policy in Ukraine," EERC Working Paper Series 16/07e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
    4. Arjan M. Lejour & Jasper Lukkezen & Paul Veenendaal, 2011. "Sustainability of Government Debt in the EMU," Chapters, in: Wim Meeusen (ed.), The Economic Crisis and European Integration, chapter 4, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    5. Westerhout, Ed, 2022. "30 Years of Generational Accounting : A Critical Review," Other publications TiSEM 252a02fe-7374-499e-97c5-0, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    6. International Monetary Fund, 2010. "Indonesia: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2010/285, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Alexis CRUZ-RODRÍGUEZ, 2014. "Assessing fiscal sustainability in some selected countries," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(6(595)), pages 7-22, June.
    8. Paret, Anne-Charlotte, 2017. "Debt sustainability in emerging market countries: Some policy guidelines from a fan-chart approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 26-45.
    9. Jasper Lukkezen & Hugo Rojas-Romagosa, 2012. "When is debt sustainable?," CPB Discussion Paper 212, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    10. Jha, Shikha & Quising, Pilipinas & Camingue, Shiela, 2009. "Macroeconomic Uncertainties, Oil Subsidies, and Fiscal Sustainability in Asia," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 150, Asian Development Bank.
    11. Togan Eğrican, Aslı & Caner, Selçuk & Togan, Sübidey, 2022. "Reforming public debt governance in Turkey to reach debt sustainability," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 44(5), pages 1057-1076.
    12. Hui, Hon Chung, 2013. "Fiscal sustainability in Malaysia: a re-examination," MPRA Paper 80018, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Ko, Jun-Hyung & Morita, Hiroshi, 2015. "Fiscal sustainability and regime shifts in Japan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 364-375.
    14. Westerhout, Ed, 2022. "30 Years of Generational Accounting : A Critical Review," Discussion Paper 2022-021, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    15. Markus Kirchner & Malte Rieth, 2010. "Sovereign Risk and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in an Emerging Market Economy," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 10-100/2, Tinbergen Institute.

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