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Gravity in the Exchange Rate Factor Structure

Author

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  • Hanno Lustig
  • Robert J Richmond
  • Andrew Karolyi

Abstract

We relate the risk characteristics of currencies to measures of physical, cultural, and institutional distance. Currencies of countries which are more distant from other countries are more exposed to systematic currency risk. This is due to a gravity effect in the factor structure of exchange rates: When a currency appreciates against a basket of other currencies, its bilateral exchange rate appreciates more against currencies of distant countries. As a result, currencies of peripheral countries are more exposed to systematic variation than currencies of central countries. Trade network centrality best predicts a currency’s average exposure to systematic risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Hanno Lustig & Robert J Richmond & Andrew Karolyi, 2020. "Gravity in the Exchange Rate Factor Structure," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(8), pages 3492-3540.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:33:y:2020:i:8:p:3492-3540.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/rfs/hhz103
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Michael Kunkler, 2023. "Synthetic money: Addressing the budget‐constraint issue," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(4), pages 3774-3788, October.
    2. Hassan, Ramin & Loualiche, Erik & Pecora, Alexandre R. & Ward, Colin, 2023. "International trade and the risk in bilateral exchange rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(2).
    3. Brice Romuald Gueyap Kounga, 2023. "Nonparametric Regression with Dyadic Data," Papers 2310.12825, arXiv.org.
    4. Tarek A. Hassan & Tony Zhang, 2021. "The Economics of Currency Risk," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 13(1), pages 281-307, August.
    5. Vedolin, Andrea & Korsaye, Sofonias Alemu & Trojani, Fabio, 2020. "The Global Factor Structure of Exchange Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 15337, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Gurdip Bakshi & Xiaohui Gao & George Panayotov, 2021. "A Theory of Dissimilarity Between Stochastic Discount Factors," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(7), pages 4602-4622, July.
    7. Tony Zhang, 2022. "Monetary Policy Spillovers through Invoicing Currencies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(1), pages 129-161, February.
    8. Jiang, Zhengyang, 2021. "US Fiscal cycle and the dollar," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 91-106.
    9. Korsaye, Sofonias Alemu & Trojani, Fabio & Vedolin, Andrea, 2023. "The global factor structure of exchange rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(1), pages 21-46.
    10. Nathan Canen & Ko Sugiura, 2022. "Inference in Linear Dyadic Data Models with Network Spillovers," Papers 2203.03497, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2023.
    11. Jiang, Zhengyang & Richmond, Robert J., 2023. "Origins of international factor structures," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(1), pages 1-26.

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