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Concentration Bias in Intertemporal Choice

Author

Listed:
  • Markus Dertwinkel-Kalt
  • Holger Gerhardt
  • Gerhard Riener
  • Frederik Schwerter
  • Louis Strang

Abstract

Many intertemporal trade-offs are unbalanced: while the advantages of options are concentrated in a few periods, the disadvantages are dispersed over numerous periods. We provide novel experimental evidence for “concentration bias,” the tendency to overweight advantages that are concentrated in time. Subjects commit to too much overtime work that is dispersed over multiple days in exchange for a bonus that is concentrated in time: concentration bias increases subjects’ willingness to work by 22.4% beyond what standard discounting models could account for. In additional conditions and a complementary experiment involving monetary payments, we study the mechanisms behind concentration bias and demonstrate the robustness of our findings.

Suggested Citation

  • Markus Dertwinkel-Kalt & Holger Gerhardt & Gerhard Riener & Frederik Schwerter & Louis Strang, 2022. "Concentration Bias in Intertemporal Choice," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(3), pages 1314-1334.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:restud:v:89:y:2022:i:3:p:1314-1334.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/restud/rdab043
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    Cited by:

    1. Dertwinkel-Kalt, Markus & Wenzel, Tobias, 2019. "Focusing and framing of risky alternatives," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 289-304.
    2. Markus Dertwinkel-Kalt & Mats Köster & Matthias Sutter, 2019. "To Buy or not to Buy? Shrouding and Partitioning of Prices in an Online Shopping Field Experiment," CESifo Working Paper Series 7475, CESifo.
    3. Adloff, Susann, 2021. "Adapting to Climate Change: Threat Experience, Cognition and Protection Motivation," VfS Annual Conference 2021 (Virtual Conference): Climate Economics 242400, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    4. Benjamin Enke & Thomas W. Graeber, 2021. "Cognitive Uncertainty in Intertemporal Choice," CESifo Working Paper Series 9472, CESifo.
    5. Zhuo Chen & Russell Golman & Jason Somerville, 2024. "Menu-dependent risk attitudes: Theory and evidence," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 68(1), pages 77-105, February.
    6. Robin Musolff & Florian Zimmermann, 2025. "Model Uncertainty," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2025_697, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    7. Dertwinkel-Kalt, Markus & Köster, Mats & Peiseler, Florian, 2019. "Attention-driven demand for bonus contracts," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 1-24.
    8. McGowan, Féidhlim P. & Denny, Eleanor & Lunn, Peter D., 2023. "Looking beyond time preference: Testing potential causes of low willingness to pay for fuel economy improvements," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    9. Zijian Zark Wang, 2025. "An Attentional Model of Time Discounting," Papers 2505.13016, arXiv.org.
    10. Canidio, Andrea & Karle, Heiko, 2022. "The focusing effect in negotiations," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 197(C), pages 1-20.
    11. Ayala Arad & Amnon Maltz, 2022. "Turning on Dimensional Prominence in Decision Making: Experiments and a Model," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(8), pages 6075-6099, August.
    12. Benjamin Enke & Thomas Graeber & Ryan Oprea, 2023. "Complexity and Time," CESifo Working Paper Series 10327, CESifo.
    13. Jason Somerville, 2022. "Range‐Dependent Attribute Weighting in Consumer Choice: An Experimental Test," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(2), pages 799-830, March.
    14. Evert Reins, 2021. "Seductive subsidies? An analysis of second-degree moral hazard in the context of photovoltaic solar systems," IRENE Working Papers 21-03, IRENE Institute of Economic Research.
    15. George Loewenstein & Zachary Wojtowicz, 2023. "The Economics of Attention," CESifo Working Paper Series 10712, CESifo.

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    JEL classification:

    • D01 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Microeconomic Behavior: Underlying Principles

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