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Policing and crime: dynamic panel evidence from California

Author

Listed:
  • Nicholas Lovett
  • David M Welsch
  • Yuhan Xue

Abstract

We exploit police and crime data from California over 26 years to construct a dynamic panel, which is then estimated using Arellano–Bover/Blundell–Bond techniques to address concerns about simultaneity, unobserved heterogeneity, and inertial effects in the policing-crime relationship. We find no evidence that increases in police staffing lead to meaningful reductions in crime through either deterrence or incapacitation. Estimates are not wholly supportive of a compelling relationship between prior criminal offending and current police staffing; providing suggestive evidence that, at least within our sample, simultaneity bias may be more modest in nature than has been previously supposed in prior studies.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicholas Lovett & David M Welsch & Yuhan Xue, 2023. "Policing and crime: dynamic panel evidence from California," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 75(3), pages 750-779.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:oxecpp:v:75:y:2023:i:3:p:750-779.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/oep/gpac041
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J18 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Public Policy
    • K14 - Law and Economics - - Basic Areas of Law - - - Criminal Law
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    • H76 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - Other Expenditure Categories

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