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Timing of childbirth, capital accumulation, and economic welfare

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  • Akira Momota
  • Ryo Horii

Abstract

This paper examines the effect of the timing of childbirth on capital accumulation and welfare in a simple overlapping generations model, where each agent lives for four periods and works for two periods. We show that delayed childbearing not only reduces population, but also generates fluctuations in the age composition of workers in the labour force. This causes the aggregate saving rate to fluctuate, which leads to cycles in the capital--labour ratio. When all agents delay childbearing, we analytically show that both the capital--labour ratio and the welfare of all agents can fall in the long run, despite the population decline. When a fraction of agents delay childbearing, it has differential welfare effects on agents depending on their positions in the demographic cycles. The effects of lower lifetime fertility and technological progress are also examined. Copyright 2013 Oxford University Press 2012 All rights reserved, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Akira Momota & Ryo Horii, 2013. "Timing of childbirth, capital accumulation, and economic welfare," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 65(2), pages 494-522, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:oxecpp:v:65:y:2013:i:2:p:494-522
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/oep/gps027
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    Cited by:

    1. d'Albis, Hippolyte & Greulich, Angela & Ponthiere, Gregory, 2018. "Development, fertility and childbearing age: A Unified Growth Theory," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 461-494.
    2. Evangelos Dioikitopoulos & Dimitrios Varvarigos, 2023. "Delay in childbearing and the evolution of fertility rates," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 36(3), pages 1545-1571, July.
    3. Aniema Atorudibo, 2021. "Marriage Norms and Fertility Outcomes in Developing Countries," Studies in Economics 2101, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    4. Momota, Akira, 2016. "Intensive and extensive margins of fertility, capital accumulation, and economic welfare," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 90-110.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

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