Timing of childbirth, capital accumulation, and economic welfare
This paper examines the effect of the timing of childbirth on capital accumulation and welfare in a simple overlapping generations model, where each agent lives for four periods and works for two periods. We show that delayed childbearing not only reduces population, but also generates fluctuations in the age composition of workers in the labour force. This causes the aggregate saving rate to fluctuate, which leads to cycles in the capital--labour ratio. When all agents delay childbearing, we analytically show that both the capital--labour ratio and the welfare of all agents can fall in the long run, despite the population decline. When a fraction of agents delay childbearing, it has differential welfare effects on agents depending on their positions in the demographic cycles. The effects of lower lifetime fertility and technological progress are also examined. Copyright 2013 Oxford University Press 2012 All rights reserved, Oxford University Press.
Volume (Year): 65 (2013)
Issue (Month): 2 (April)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Fax: 01865 267 985
Web page: http://oep.oupjournals.org/
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.oup.co.uk/journals|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Zeng, J & Jie Zhang, .
"Optimal social security in a dynastic model with investment externalities and endogenous fertility,"
MRG Discussion Paper Series
1006, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
- Zhang, Jie & Zhang, Junsen, 2007. "Optimal social security in a dynastic model with investment externalities and endogenous fertility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(11), pages 3545-3567, November.
- Robert Tamura, 2004.
"Human capital and economic development,"
2004-34, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, 2002.
"A Stochastic Model of Mortality, Fertility, and Human Capital Investment,"
- Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem, 2003. "A stochastic model of mortality, fertility, and human capital investment," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 103-118, February.
- Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, 2002.
"Does the Mortality Decline Promote Economic Growth?,"
- Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem, 2002. " Does the Mortality Decline Promote Economic Growth?," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 7(4), pages 411-39, December.
- Matthias Doepke, 2005.
"Child mortality and fertility decline: Does the Barro-Becker model fit the facts?,"
Journal of Population Economics,
Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 337-366, 06.
- Matthias Doepke, 2002. "Child Mortality and Fertility Decline: Does the Barro-Becker Model Fit the Facts?," UCLA Economics Working Papers 824, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Tullio Jappelli & Franco Modigliani, 1998. "The Age-Saving Profile and the Life-Cycle Hypothesis," CSEF Working Papers 09, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
- Hippolyte D'Albis, 2007.
"Demographic structure and capital accumulation,"
- Iyigun, Murat F., 2000. "Timing of childbearing and economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 255-269, February.
- Charles H. Mullin & Ping Wang, 2002. "The Timing of Childbearing among Heterogeneous Women in Dynamic General Equilibrium," NBER Working Papers 9231, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kasey Buckles, 2008. "Understanding the Returns to Delayed Childbearing for Working Women," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 403-07, May.
- Tomás Sobotka, 2004. "Is Lowest-Low Fertility in Europe Explained by the Postponement of Childbearing?," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 30(2), pages 195-220.
- Blackburn, Keith & Cipriani, Giam Pietro, 2002. "A model of longevity, fertility and growth," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 187-204, February.
- Cigno, Alessandro & Ermisch, John, 1989. "A microeconomic analysis of the timing of births," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 737-760, April.
- Hippolyte d'Albis & Emmanuelle Augeraud-VÃ©ron & Katheline Schubert, 2010. "Demo-economic equilibria when childbearing age is endogenous," LERNA Working Papers 10.04.310, LERNA, University of Toulouse.
- Mark Berger, 1989. "Demographic Cycles, Cohort Size, and Earnings," Demography, Springer, vol. 26(2), pages 311-321, May.
- Yew, Siew Ling & Zhang, Jie, 2009. "Optimal social security in a dynastic model with human capital externalities, fertility and endogenous growth," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(3-4), pages 605-619, April.
- Hans-Peter Kohler & Francesco C. Billari & José Antonio Ortega, 2002. "The Emergence of Lowest-Low Fertility in Europe During the 1990s," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 28(4), pages 641-680.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oup:oxecpp:v:65:y:2013:i:2:p:494-522. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Oxford University Press)or (Christopher F. Baum)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.