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Habit, Long-Run Risks, Prospect? A Statistical Inquiry

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  • Eric M. Aldrich

Abstract

We use recently proposed Bayesian statistical methods to compare the habit persistence asset pricing model of Campbell and Cochrane, the long-run risks model of Bansal and Yaron, and the prospect theory model of Barberis, Huang, and Santos. We improve these Bayesian methods so that they can accommodate highly nonlinear models such as the three aforementioned. Our substantive results can be stated succinctly: If one believes that the extreme consumption fluctuations of 1930--1949 can recur, although they have not in the last sixty years even counting the current recession, then the long-run risks model is preferred. Otherwise, the habit model is preferred. Copyright The Author 2011. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com., Oxford University Press.

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  • Eric M. Aldrich, 2011. "Habit, Long-Run Risks, Prospect? A Statistical Inquiry," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 9(4), pages 589-618.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:jfinec:v:9:y:2011:i:4:p:589-618
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    Cited by:

    1. Raymond Kan & Cesare Robotti, 2016. "The Exact Distribution of the Hansen–Jagannathan Bound," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 62(7), pages 1915-1943, July.
    2. Mengel F. & Peeters R.J.A.P., 2015. "Do markets encourage risk-seeking behaviour?," Research Memorandum 042, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
    3. Grammig, Joachim & Küchlin, Eva-Maria, 2017. "A two-step indirect inference approach to estimate the long-run risk asset pricing model," CFS Working Paper Series 572, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    4. Grammig, Joachim & Küchlin, Eva-Maria, 2017. "A two-step indirect inference approach to estimate the long-run risk asset pricing model," CFR Working Papers 17-01, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    5. Favero, Carlo A. & Ortu, Fulvio & Tamoni, Andrea & Yang, Haoxi, 2016. "Implications of Return Predictability across Horizons for Asset Pricing Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 11645, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Gallant, A. Ronald & Jahan-Parvar, Mohammad & Liu, Hening, 2015. "Measuring Ambiguity Aversion," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-105, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Andrew Y. Chen & Rebecca Wasyk & Fabian Winkler, 2017. "A Likelihood-Based Comparison of Macro Asset Pricing Models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-024, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

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