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Natural disasters and spatial heterogeneity in damages: the birth, life and death of manufacturing plants

Author

Listed:
  • Matthew A Cole
  • Robert J R Elliott
  • Toshihiro Okubo
  • Eric Strobl

Abstract

In this paper, we use the 1995 Kobe earthquake as a natural experiment to examine the impact of a large exogenous physical shock on local economic activity. For the first time we are able to control for local spatial heterogeneity in the damage caused by a natural disaster using geo-coded plant location and unique building-level surveys. In a survival analysis of manufacturing plants, our results show that building-level damage significantly affects a plant’s likelihood of failure and this effect persists for up to 7 years. Further analysis demonstrates that the plants most likely to exit as a result of earthquake damage are the least productive which is suggestive of a cleansing effect as the average productivity rate of the remaining plants increases. We also find that continuing plants experience a temporary increase in productivity following the earthquake consistent with a ‘build back better’ effect. In terms of local regeneration our results indicate that plant births increase in areas with more severe damage consistent with redevelopment plans for Kobe.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthew A Cole & Robert J R Elliott & Toshihiro Okubo & Eric Strobl, 2019. "Natural disasters and spatial heterogeneity in damages: the birth, life and death of manufacturing plants," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(2), pages 373-408.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:jecgeo:v:19:y:2019:i:2:p:373-408.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/jeg/lbx037
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Earthquake; natural disaster; survival analysis; productivity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • R10 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)
    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • L10 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - General
    • L25 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Firm Performance
    • M13 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Administration - - - New Firms; Startups
    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics

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