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Disequilibrium macroeconometrics
[The financial crisis and the systemic failure of the academics profession]

Author

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  • Katarina Juselius

Abstract

Inspired by the paper by Guzman and Stiglitz (2020, ‘Towards a dynamic disequilibrium theory with randomness,’ NBER Working Paper 27453), this article shows that cointegrated VAR (CVAR) analyses have for many years provided empirical underpinnings for most of the topics discussed in that paper. The CVAR takes the nonstationarity of economic data seriously; it allows explicitly for complex adjustment dynamics in the short run and the long run; it is able to describe self-reinforcing feedback mechanisms leading to multiple equilibria; it is able to handle extraordinary shocks to the system whether they are exogenously or endogenously induced; and it is able to accommodate sizeable crisis periods such as the Great Recession. The article discusses these issues and many more from a methodological, econometric, and empirical point of view and illustrates the ideas with an application to the Phillips curve with a Phelpsian natural rate based on US data.

Suggested Citation

  • Katarina Juselius, 2021. "Disequilibrium macroeconometrics [The financial crisis and the systemic failure of the academics profession]," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 30(2), pages 357-376.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:indcch:v:30:y:2021:i:2:p:357-376.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/icc/dtab029
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    Cited by:

    1. Ogawa, Shogo, 2022. "Survey of non-Walrasian disequilibrium economic theory," MPRA Paper 115011, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • B41 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - Economic Methodology
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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