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The 'Thin film of gold': monetary rules and policy credibility

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  • Niall Ferguson
  • Moritz Schularick

Abstract

We ask whether developing countries reap credibility gains from submitting policy to a strict monetary rule. We look at the gold standard era, 1880-1914, to test whether adoption of a rule-based monetary framework such as the gold standard increased policy credibility, focusing on sixty independent and colonial borrowers in the London market. We challenge the traditional view that gold standard adherence was a credible commitment mechanism rewarded by financial markets with lower borrowing costs. We demonstrate that for the poor periphery—where policy credibility is a particularly acute problem—the market looked behind 'the thin film of gold'. Copyright , Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Niall Ferguson & Moritz Schularick, 2012. "The 'Thin film of gold': monetary rules and policy credibility," European Review of Economic History, European Historical Economics Society, vol. 16(4), pages 384-407, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ereveh:v:16:y:2012:i:4:p:384-407
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/ereh/hes006
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    Cited by:

    1. Kramer, Bert S. & Milionis, Petros, 2022. "Democratic constraints and adherence to the classical gold standard," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    2. Weidenmier, Marc & Mitchener, Kris, 2015. "Was the Classical Gold Standard Credible on the Periphery? Evidence from Currency Risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 10388, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Ulrich Gunter & Egon Smeral, 2016. "The decline of tourism income elasticities in a global context," Tourism Economics, , vol. 22(3), pages 466-483, June.
    4. Tunçer, Ali Coşkun & Weller, Leonardo, 2022. "Democracy, autocracy, and sovereign debt: How polity influenced country risk on the peripheries of the global economy, 1870–1913," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    5. Baffigi, Alberto & Bontempi, Maria Elena & Felice, Emanuele & Golinelli, Roberto, 2015. "The changing relationship between inflation and the economic cycle in Italy: 1861–2012," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 53-70.

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