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Policy evaluation with sufficient macro statistics: a primer

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  • Régis Barnichon
  • Geert Mesters

Abstract

SummaryImpulse responses and forecasts are central concepts for policymakers. They are also sufficient statistics to solve many important macroeconomic problems, from policy counterfactuals to policy evaluation, and offer a promising alternative to the standard structural modelling approach. In this work, we discuss and extend recent progress on the use of these sufficient macro statistics for policy evaluation. We illustrate the methods by evaluating the performance of the European Central Bank over 1999–2023.

Suggested Citation

  • Régis Barnichon & Geert Mesters, 2026. "Policy evaluation with sufficient macro statistics: a primer," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 29(1), pages 27-68.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:emjrnl:v:29:y:2026:i:1:p:27-68.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/ectj/utaf022
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    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative

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