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Velocity Futures Markets: Does the Fed Need a Structural Model?

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  • Aaron L. Jackson
  • Scott Sumner

Abstract

Previous proposals suggesting monetary policy makers target private-sector forecasts have been shown to be problematic. As policy becomes more effective, private-sector forecasts become less informative. Under perfect stabilization private-sector forecasts provide no useful guidance to monetary policy makers about economic shocks. We illustrate a way around this circularity problem by creating a policy futures market linked to the ratio of the (realization of the) policy goal for next period and the current instrument setting. The implication is that extensive information gathering is unnecessary, weakening the argument that central banks need a structural model to conduct policy. (JEL E52, E44, E42) Copyright 2006, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Aaron L. Jackson & Scott Sumner, 2006. "Velocity Futures Markets: Does the Fed Need a Structural Model?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 44(4), pages 716-728, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:ecinqu:v:44:y:2006:i:4:p:716-728
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/ei/cbj044
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jackson, Aaron L., 2010. "Policy futures markets with multiple goals," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 45-54, March.
    2. Selgin, George & Lastrapes, William D. & White, Lawrence H., 2012. "Has the Fed been a failure?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 569-596.
    3. Sumner Scott, 2006. "Let a Thousand Models Bloom: The Advantages of Making the FOMC a Truly 'Open Market'," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 1-27, October.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System

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