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The U.S. Productivity Slowdown: A Peak through the Structural Break Window

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  • Dolmas, Jim
  • Raj, Baldev
  • Slottje, Daniel J

Abstract

This paper provides a formal test of the null hypothesis of a unit root in the log-level of labor productivity against the alternative of linear trend stationarity with a one-time structural break in the level and slope of the trend at an a priori unknown date. Using some newly developed time series tests, the authors show that the log-level of productivity is more accurately modeled as following a deterministic trend with a regime shift rather than as a unit root process. Some implications of the results for detrending and for testing cointegration relationships between productivity and other variables are discussed. Copyright 1999 by Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Dolmas, Jim & Raj, Baldev & Slottje, Daniel J, 1999. "The U.S. Productivity Slowdown: A Peak through the Structural Break Window," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 37(2), pages 226-241, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ecinqu:v:37:y:1999:i:2:p:226-41
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    Cited by:

    1. Patrick Francois & Joanne Roberts, 2003. "Contracting Productivity Growth," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 70(1), pages 59-85.
    2. Kevin J. Lansing, 2000. "Learning about a shift in trend output: implications for monetary policy and inflation," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    3. Smyth, Russell & Inder, Brett, 2004. "Is Chinese provincial real GDP per capita nonstationary?: Evidence from multiple trend break unit root tests," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 1-24.
    4. Pelaez, Rolando F., 2004. "Dating the productivity slowdown with a structural time-series model," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 253-264, May.
    5. Giordani, Paolo & Kohn, Robert & van Dijk, Dick, 2007. "A unified approach to nonlinearity, structural change, and outliers," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 137(1), pages 112-133, March.
    6. Li, Xiao-Ming, 2000. "The Great Leap Forward, Economic Reforms, and the Unit Root Hypothesis: Testing for Breaking Trend Functions in China's GDP Data," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 814-827, December.

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