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General Bayesian updating and the loss-likelihood bootstrap

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  • S P Lyddon
  • C C Holmes
  • S G Walker

Abstract

SummaryIn this paper we revisit the weighted likelihood bootstrap, a method that generates samples from an approximate Bayesian posterior of a parametric model. We show that the same method can be derived, without approximation, under a Bayesian nonparametric model with the parameter of interest defined through minimizing an expected negative loglikelihood under an unknown sampling distribution. This interpretation enables us to extend the weighted likelihood bootstrap to posterior sampling for parameters minimizing an expected loss. We call this method the loss-likelihood bootstrap, and we make a connection between it and general Bayesian updating, which is a way of updating prior belief distributions that does not need the construction of a global probability model, yet requires the calibration of two forms of loss function. The loss-likelihood bootstrap is used to calibrate the general Bayesian posterior by matching asymptotic Fisher information. We demonstrate the proposed method on a number of examples.

Suggested Citation

  • S P Lyddon & C C Holmes & S G Walker, 2019. "General Bayesian updating and the loss-likelihood bootstrap," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 106(2), pages 465-478.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:biomet:v:106:y:2019:i:2:p:465-478.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/biomet/asz006
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Gael M. Martin & David T. Frazier & Christian P. Robert, 2020. "Computing Bayes: Bayesian Computation from 1763 to the 21st Century," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 14/20, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    2. Ruben Loaiza‐Maya & Gael M. Martin & David T. Frazier, 2021. "Focused Bayesian prediction," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(5), pages 517-543, August.
    3. Gael M. Martin & David T. Frazier & Worapree Maneesoonthorn & Ruben Loaiza-Maya & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & John Maheu & Didier Nibbering & Anastasios Panagiotelis, 2022. "Bayesian Forecasting in Economics and Finance: A Modern Review," Papers 2212.03471, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2023.
    4. Gael M. Martin & David T. Frazier & Ruben Loaiza-Maya & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & John Maheu & Didier Nibbering & Anastasios Panagiotelis, 2023. "Bayesian Forecasting in the 21st Century: A Modern Review," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 1/23, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    5. Tsionas, Mike G., 2023. "Joint production in stochastic non-parametric envelopment of data with firm-specific directions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 307(3), pages 1336-1347.
    6. Yahia Abdel-Aty & Mohamed Kayid & Ghadah Alomani, 2023. "Generalized Bayes Estimation Based on a Joint Type-II Censored Sample from K-Exponential Populations," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-11, May.

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