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Effects on a Corn-Soybean Farm of Uncertainty about the Future of Farm Programs

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  • Patricia A. Duffy
  • C. Robert Taylor

Abstract

Dynamic programming techniques are used to evaluate effects of uncertainty about continuation of farm programs on planting decisions during the last year of the 1990 Farm Bill. Results indicate farm-level decisions are affected by uncertainty only when the farmer's subjective probability of the continuation of farm programs is very low. The optimal value functions in different versions of the model can also be used to estimate the implicit value of base acreage.

Suggested Citation

  • Patricia A. Duffy & C. Robert Taylor, 1994. "Effects on a Corn-Soybean Farm of Uncertainty about the Future of Farm Programs," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 76(1), pages 141-152.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:76:y:1994:i:1:p:141-152.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.2307/1243928
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    Cited by:

    1. Maynard, Leigh J. & Harper, Jayson K. & Hoffman, Lynn D., 1997. "Impact Of Risk Preferences On Crop Rotation Choice," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 26(1), pages 1-9, April.
    2. Arathi Bhaskar & John C. Beghin, 2010. "Decoupled Farm Payments and the Role of Base Acreage and Yield Updating Under Uncertainty," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 92(3), pages 849-858.
    3. Lagerkvist, Carl Johan, 2000. "Agricultural Policy Uncertainty And Anticipatory Firm Level Adjustments," 2000 Annual meeting, July 30-August 2, Tampa, FL 21734, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    4. Bhaskar, Arathi & Beghin, John C., 2007. "Decoupled Farm Payments and the Role of Base Updating Under Uncertainty," Working Papers 7350, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    5. Parveen Setia & Bengt Hyberg & Daniel Ugarte & Daryll Ray, 1997. "Planting flexibility: Implications for agricultural sustainability," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 3(3), pages 299-311, August.
    6. Kouka, Pierre-Justin & Duffy, Patricia A. & Taylor, C. Robert, 1994. "Long-Term Planning Of A Livestock-Crop Farm Under Government Programs," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 26(1), pages 1-12, July.

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