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Forecasting and Hedging: An Illustration of Risk Reduction in the Hog Industry

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  • Jon A. Brandt

Abstract

Hog producers and first handlers can reduce the risk of unfavorable price fluctuations by combining the information from forecasting models with a selective hedging strategy. Six quarterly price-forecasting approaches (econometric, ARIMA, expert, naive, and two composites) were evaluated over the 1976–82 period using a simple yet pragmatic hedging decision rule. The results indicate that relatively modest improvements in prices received by producers or paid by first-handlers relative to cash marketing were possible. Statistically significant reductions in short-term risk exposure were achieved by both groups through most of the approaches evaluated.

Suggested Citation

  • Jon A. Brandt, 1985. "Forecasting and Hedging: An Illustration of Risk Reduction in the Hog Industry," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 67(1), pages 24-31.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:67:y:1985:i:1:p:24-31.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.2307/1240820
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    Cited by:

    1. Fabio C. Zanini & Philip Garcia, 1997. "Did Producer Hedging Opportunities in the Live Hog Contract Decline?," Finance 9712005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Blank, Steven C., 1989. "Research On Futures Markets: Issues, Approaches, And Empirical Findings," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 14(1), pages 1-14, July.
    3. Novak, Frank & Bauer, Leonard & Dailly, Sally & Melvin, Richard, 1992. "An Analysis of Risk and Return in Hog Finishing," Project Report Series 232358, University of Alberta, Department of Resource Economics and Environmental Sociology.
    4. Ziehm, William Walter, 1986. "An evaluation of alternative hedging strategies for Iowa cattle feeders: before, at, and after placement, 1974-1984," ISU General Staff Papers 1986010108000018118, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    5. Li, Anzhi & Dorfman, Jeffrey H., 2014. "Composite Qualitative Forecasting of Futures Prices: Using One Commodity to Help Forecast Another," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 169790, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    6. Karali, Berna & McNew, Kevin & Thurman, Walter N., 2018. "Price Discovery and the Basis Effects of Failures to Converge in Soft RedWinter Wheat Futures Markets," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 43(1), January.
    7. Feather, Peter M. & Kaylen, Michael S., 1987. "Qualitative Composite Forecasting," 1987 Annual Meeting, August 2-5, East Lansing, Michigan 269941, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).

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