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Mapping geopolitical fragmentation: a bilateral index for economic analysis

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Listed:
  • Niklas Kirsamer

  • Katharina Riha

Abstract

We propose a bilateral and time-variant compound indicator measuring shifts in political relations for 193 countries that covers the period from 2002 to 2022. It draws on freely available and regularly updated sources: ideal point distances of UN General Assembly votes, the Voice and Accountability Index of the World Bank and the level of representation index. We combine these indices into a politically-driven variable for geopolitical fragmentation, which can be used in economic analysis. Furthermore, we use a machine-learning method for network clustering to determine geopolitical blocs of countries that are consistent with recent observations of political shifts and events. For our last observation in 2022, the data-driven method produces three blocs: a US bloc, a Chinese bloc and a third bloc that includes mainly South American and Southern African countries. In a global environment characterized by new prioritizations and strategic shifts, our index or the information about geopolitical bloc building can serve as a valuable tool for analyzing the impact of fragmentation on trade, capital flows and migration.

Suggested Citation

  • Niklas Kirsamer & Katharina Riha, 2025. "Mapping geopolitical fragmentation: a bilateral index for economic analysis," OeNB Bulletin, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q4/25-1, pages 1-35.
    • Handle: RePEc:onb:oenbbu:y:2025:i:q4/25-1:b:1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F55 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Institutional Arrangements
    • F63 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Economic Development
    • F68 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Policy
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions

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