Comparing Probability Forecasts in Markov Regime Switching Business Cycle Models
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- Yin Liao & John Stachurski, 2011. "Parametric Conditional Monte Carlo Density Estimation," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2011-562, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
- Layton, Allan P. & Smith, Daniel R., 2007. "Business cycle dynamics with duration dependence and leading indicators," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 855-875, December.
- Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2010.
"Markov-Switching and the Ifo Business Climate: the Ifo Business Cycle Traffic Lights,"
OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis,
OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2010(2), pages 1-13.
- Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2010. "Markov-Switching and the Ifo Business Climate: The Ifo Business Cycle Traffic Lights," CESifo Working Paper Series 2936, CESifo Group Munich.
- Luca Agnello & Gilles Dufrénot & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2012. "Adjusting the U.S. Fiscal Policy for Asset Prices: Evidence from a TVP-MS Framework," NIPE Working Papers 20/2012, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
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KeywordsMarkov Regime Switching; Diebold and Mariano statistic; Quadratic Probability Score; Monte Carlo; Business Cycle;
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