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Estimates of uncertainty around Australian budget forecasts

Author

Listed:
  • John Clark
  • Caroline Gibbons
  • Susan Morrissey
  • Joshua Pooley
  • Emily Pye
  • Rhett Wilcox
  • Luke Willard

Abstract

In this article, past forecast errors are used to construct confidence intervals around Australian Government Budget forecasts of key economic and fiscal variables. These confidence intervals provide an indication of the extent of uncertainty around the point estimate forecasts presented in the Budget. JEL classification numbers: E17, H68. Keywords: Confidence intervals, forecast errors, government budget, nominal GDP, real GDP, treasury, uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • John Clark & Caroline Gibbons & Susan Morrissey & Joshua Pooley & Emily Pye & Rhett Wilcox & Luke Willard, 2014. "Estimates of uncertainty around Australian budget forecasts," OECD Journal on Budgeting, OECD Publishing, vol. 13(3), pages 1-19.
    • Handle: RePEc:oec:govkaa:5jxvd4xlns7j
    DOI: 10.1787/budget-13-5jxvd4xlns7j
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Madalina-Gabriela Anghel & Alexandru Manole & Alina-Georgiana Solomon, 2017. "Using the System of National Accounts in the Forecasting Activity," International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, vol. 7(2), pages 91-96, April.
    2. Diego J. Pedregal & Javier J. Pérez & Antonio Sánchez Fuentes, 2014. "A Tookit to strengthen Government," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 211(4), pages 117-146, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    confidence intervals; forecast errors; government budget; nominal gdp; real gdp; treasury; uncertainty.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt

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