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Do State Revenue Forecasters Utilize Available Information

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  • Gentry, William M.

Abstract

Tests whether state revenue forecasts incorporate all possible economic and political information. Formally defines the concept of rationality and then tests it on time series data on New Jersey's major revenue sources.

Suggested Citation

  • Gentry, William M., 1989. "Do State Revenue Forecasters Utilize Available Information," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 42(4), pages 429-439, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:ntj:journl:v:42:y:1989:i:4:p:429-39
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    File URL: https://www.ntanet.org/NTJ/42/4/ntj-v42n04p429-39-state-revenue-forecasters-utilize.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Aaron, Henry J, 1976. "Inflation and the Income Tax," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, pages 193-199.
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    Cited by:

    1. Leal, Teresa & Pérez, Javier J. & Tujula, Mika & Vidal, Jean-Pierre, 2007. "Fiscal forecasting: lessons from the literature and challenges," Working Paper Series 843, European Central Bank.
    2. Teresa Leal & Javier J. Pérez & Mika Tujula & Jean-Pierre Vidal, 2008. "Fiscal Forecasting: Lessons from the Literature and Challenges," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, pages 347-386.
    3. West, Carol T., 2003. "The Status of Evaluating Accuracy of Regional Forecasts," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 33(1), pages 85-103.
    4. Gary Wagner & Russell Sobel, 2006. "State budget stabilization fund adoption: Preparing for the next recession or circumventing fiscal constraints?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 126(1), pages 177-199, January.
    5. Jalles, João Tovar, 2017. "On the rationality and efficiency of inflation forecasts: Evidence from advanced and emerging market economies," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, pages 175-189.
    6. repec:eee:ecosys:v:41:y:2017:i:3:p:408-419 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Krol, Robert, 2013. "Evaluating state revenue forecasting under a flexible loss function," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 282-289.
    8. Bryan Campbell & Eric Ghysels, 1997. "An Empirical Analysis of the Canadian Budget Process," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 30(3), pages 553-576, August.
    9. Niels Gilbert & Jasper de Jong, 2014. "Does the Stability and Growth Pact induce a bias in the EC's fiscal forecasts," DNB Working Papers 451, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    10. Wagner, Gary A., 2003. "Are state budget stabilization funds only the illusion of savings?: Evidence from stationary panel data," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 213-238.
    11. Dorothée Boccanfuso & Marcelin Joanis & Patrick Richard & Luc Savard, 2014. "A comparative analysis of funding schemes for public infrastructure spending in Quebec," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(22), pages 2653-2664, August.
    12. Niels D. Gilbert & Jasper F.M. Jong, 2017. "Do European fiscal rules induce a bias in fiscal forecasts? Evidence from the Stability and Growth Pact," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 170(1), pages 1-32, January.
    13. Mocan, H. Naci & Azad, Sam, 1995. "Accuracy and rationality of state General Fund Revenue forecasts: Evidence from panel data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 417-427, September.
    14. Merola, Rossana & Pérez, Javier J., 2013. "Fiscal forecast errors: Governments versus independent agencies?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 285-299.

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