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Marketers' Intuitions about the Sales Effectiveness of Advertisements


  • Hartnett, Nicole
  • Kennedy, Rachel
  • Sharp, Byron
  • Greenacre, Luke


Advertisements vary enormously in their sales effectiveness, so choosing the more effective advertisements to air is an important marketing task. Such decisions are often made intuitively. This study assesses the intuitive predictions made by a global sample of marketers regarding which television ads are more or less sales effective. The findings show that marketersÂ’ predictions were correct no more often than random chance. Multivariate analysis suggests that those with category experience and those in marketing or consumer insights roles make slightly better predictions. Aside from who makes better predictions, further research is needed on how to improve advertising decisions, including use of evidence-based decision support systems and team decision-making.

Suggested Citation

  • Hartnett, Nicole & Kennedy, Rachel & Sharp, Byron & Greenacre, Luke, 2016. "Marketers' Intuitions about the Sales Effectiveness of Advertisements," Journal of Marketing Behavior, now publishers, vol. 2(2-3), pages 177-194, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:now:jnljmb:107.00000034
    DOI: 10.1561/107.00000034

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    Cited by:

    1. Sharp, Byron & Dawes, John & Victory, Kirsten, 2024. "The market-based assets theory of brand competition," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    2. Joshua Becker & Abdullah Almaatouq & EmH{o}ke-'Agnes Horv'at, 2020. "Network Structures of Collective Intelligence: The Contingent Benefits of Group Discussion," Papers 2009.07202,, revised Mar 2021.
    3. Bogomolova, Svetlana & Szabo, Marietta & Kennedy, Rachel, 2017. "Retailers' and manufacturers' price-promotion decisions: Intuitive or evidence-based?," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 189-200.


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