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Pension Gambit

Author

Listed:
  • Gorlin, Yu.

    (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Moscow, Russia)

  • Lyashok, V.

    (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Moscow, Russia
    Financial Research Institute, Moscow, Russia
    Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russia)

Abstract

The article presents the results of the analysis of the impact of changes in the pension legislation adopted in October 2018 on the main parameters of the mandatory pension insurance system. It is shown that without raising the retirement age and maintaining the current structure of the insurance pension system until 2050, it would be possible to ensure the annual indexation of pensions in terms of inflation even with minimal economic growth. However, to maintain the ratio of the average pension to the average wage at the current level, raising the retirement age is only one of the necessary measures to stabilize the situation in the period up to 2028. The paper presents the impact of reducing informal employment, increasing the requirements for the length of insurance tenure and increasing the minimum number of individual pension points on the replacement rate. The estimates of tax rates and budget transfer amounts at which it is possible to ensure the replacement rate at the current level (33%) or increase it to 40% are given in for the period up to 2050.

Suggested Citation

  • Gorlin, Yu. & Lyashok, V., 2019. "Pension Gambit," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 42(2), pages 138-148.
    • Handle: RePEc:nea:journl:y:2019:i:42:p:138-148
    DOI: 10.31737/2221-2264-2019-42-2-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gurvich, E., 2010. "Reform of 2010: are the Long-Term Problems of the Pension System Properly Addressed?," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, issue 6, pages 98-119.
    2. Gorlin, Yury (Горлин, Юрий) & Maleva, Tatiana (Малева, Татьяна) & Grishina, Elena (Гришина, Елена) & Dormidontova, Yulia (Дормидонтова, Юлия) & Lyashok, Victor (Ляшок, Виктор), 2015. "Analytical and Methodical Support of Pension Reform in the Medium and Long Term [Аналитическое И Методическое Обеспечение Пенсионной Реформы В Средне- И Долгосрочной Перспективе]," Published Papers mn3, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    3. A. Vishnevsky & S. Vasin & A. Ramonov., 2012. "Retirement Age and Life Expectancy in the Russian Federation," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 9.
    4. A. Kudrin & E. Gurvich., 2012. "Population Aging and Risks of Budget Crisis," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 3.
    5. Vladimir Nazarov & Sergey Sinelnikov, 2009. "On the strategy for improving the Russian pension reform," Working Papers 0008, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, revised 2009.
    6. Maleva, T. & Sinyavskaya, O., 2010. "Pension Age Increase: Pro et Contra," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, issue 8, pages 117-137.
    7. Nazarov, Vladimir & Sinelnikov-Murylev, Sergei, 2009. "On the Strategy of improvement of the Russian pension system," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 3, pages 150-177, June.
    8. Gorlin, Yuriy M. (Горлин, Юрий М.) & Lyashok, Victor Yu. (Ляшок, Виктор Ю.) & Maleva, Tatiana M. (Малева, Татьяна М.), 2018. "Pension Age Increase: Positive Effects and the Possible Risks [Повышение Пенсионного Возраста: Позитивные Эффекты И Вероятные Риски]," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 1, pages 148-179, February.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    pension system; retirement age; replacement rate;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs

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