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Spread of a SARS-CoV-2 variant through Europe in the summer of 2020

Author

Listed:
  • Emma B. Hodcroft

    (University of Basel
    Swiss Institute of Bioinformatics
    University of Bern)

  • Moira Zuber

    (University of Basel)

  • Sarah Nadeau

    (Swiss Institute of Bioinformatics
    ETH Zürich)

  • Timothy G. Vaughan

    (Swiss Institute of Bioinformatics
    ETH Zürich)

  • Katharine H. D. Crawford

    (Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center
    University of Washington
    Medical Scientist Training Program, University of Washington)

  • Christian L. Althaus

    (University of Bern)

  • Martina L. Reichmuth

    (University of Bern)

  • John E. Bowen

    (University of Washington)

  • Alexandra C. Walls

    (University of Washington)

  • Davide Corti

    (Humabs Biomed SA, a subsidiary of Vir Biotechnology)

  • Jesse D. Bloom

    (Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center
    University of Washington
    Howard Hughes Medical Institute)

  • David Veesler

    (University of Washington)

  • David Mateo

    (Kido Dynamics SA)

  • Alberto Hernando

    (Kido Dynamics SA)

  • Iñaki Comas

    (Tuberculosis Genomics Unit, Biomedicine Institute of Valencia (IBV-CSIC)
    CIBER de Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP))

  • Fernando González-Candelas

    (CIBER de Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP)
    Joint Research Unit “Infection and Public Health” FISABIO-University of Valencia, Institute for Integrative Systems Biology (I2SysBio))

  • Tanja Stadler

    (Swiss Institute of Bioinformatics
    ETH Zürich)

  • Richard A. Neher

    (University of Basel
    Swiss Institute of Bioinformatics)

Abstract

Following its emergence in late 2019, the spread of SARS-CoV-21,2 has been tracked by phylogenetic analysis of viral genome sequences in unprecedented detail3–5. Although the virus spread globally in early 2020 before borders closed, intercontinental travel has since been greatly reduced. However, travel within Europe resumed in the summer of 2020. Here we report on a SARS-CoV-2 variant, 20E (EU1), that was identified in Spain in early summer 2020 and subsequently spread across Europe. We find no evidence that this variant has increased transmissibility, but instead demonstrate how rising incidence in Spain, resumption of travel, and lack of effective screening and containment may explain the variant’s success. Despite travel restrictions, we estimate that 20E (EU1) was introduced hundreds of times to European countries by summertime travellers, which is likely to have undermined local efforts to minimize infection with SARS-CoV-2. Our results illustrate how a variant can rapidly become dominant even in the absence of a substantial transmission advantage in favourable epidemiological settings. Genomic surveillance is critical for understanding how travel can affect transmission of SARS-CoV-2, and thus for informing future containment strategies as travel resumes.

Suggested Citation

  • Emma B. Hodcroft & Moira Zuber & Sarah Nadeau & Timothy G. Vaughan & Katharine H. D. Crawford & Christian L. Althaus & Martina L. Reichmuth & John E. Bowen & Alexandra C. Walls & Davide Corti & Jesse , 2021. "Spread of a SARS-CoV-2 variant through Europe in the summer of 2020," Nature, Nature, vol. 595(7869), pages 707-712, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:595:y:2021:i:7869:d:10.1038_s41586-021-03677-y
    DOI: 10.1038/s41586-021-03677-y
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    Cited by:

    1. Edyth Parker & Catelyn Anderson & Mark Zeller & Ahmad Tibi & Jennifer L. Havens & Geneviève Laroche & Mehdi Benlarbi & Ardeshir Ariana & Refugio Robles-Sikisaka & Alaa Abdel Latif & Alexander Watts & , 2022. "Regional connectivity drove bidirectional transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the Middle East during travel restrictions," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-14, December.
    2. Backhaus, Andreas, 2022. "International travel in times of the COVID-19 pandemic: The case of German school breaks," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
    3. Tiago Gräf & Alexander A. Martinez & Gonzalo Bello & Simon Dellicour & Philippe Lemey & Vittoria Colizza & Mattia Mazzoli & Chiara Poletto & Vanessa Leiko Oikawa Cardoso & Alexandre Freitas Silva & Fe, 2024. "Dispersion patterns of SARS-CoV-2 variants Gamma, Lambda and Mu in Latin America and the Caribbean," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.
    4. Haogao Gu & Ruopeng Xie & Dillon C. Adam & Joseph L.-H. Tsui & Daniel K. Chu & Lydia D. J. Chang & Sammi S. Y. Cheuk & Shreya Gurung & Pavithra Krishnan & Daisy Y. M. Ng & Gigi Y. Z. Liu & Carrie K. C, 2022. "Genomic epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 under an elimination strategy in Hong Kong," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.

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