IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/nature/v585y2020i7826d10.1038_s41586-020-2727-5.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The hysteresis of the Antarctic Ice Sheet

Author

Listed:
  • Julius Garbe

    (Member of the Leibniz Association
    University of Potsdam)

  • Torsten Albrecht

    (Member of the Leibniz Association)

  • Anders Levermann

    (Member of the Leibniz Association
    University of Potsdam
    Columbia University)

  • Jonathan F. Donges

    (Member of the Leibniz Association
    Stockholm University)

  • Ricarda Winkelmann

    (Member of the Leibniz Association
    University of Potsdam)

Abstract

More than half of Earth’s freshwater resources are held by the Antarctic Ice Sheet, which thus represents by far the largest potential source for global sea-level rise under future warming conditions1. Its long-term stability determines the fate of our coastal cities and cultural heritage. Feedbacks between ice, atmosphere, ocean, and the solid Earth give rise to potential nonlinearities in its response to temperature changes. So far, we are lacking a comprehensive stability analysis of the Antarctic Ice Sheet for different amounts of global warming. Here we show that the Antarctic Ice Sheet exhibits a multitude of temperature thresholds beyond which ice loss is irreversible. Consistent with palaeodata2 we find, using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model3–5, that at global warming levels around 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, West Antarctica is committed to long-term partial collapse owing to the marine ice-sheet instability. Between 6 and 9 degrees of warming above pre-industrial levels, the loss of more than 70 per cent of the present-day ice volume is triggered, mainly caused by the surface elevation feedback. At more than 10 degrees of warming above pre-industrial levels, Antarctica is committed to become virtually ice-free. The ice sheet’s temperature sensitivity is 1.3 metres of sea-level equivalent per degree of warming up to 2 degrees above pre-industrial levels, almost doubling to 2.4 metres per degree of warming between 2 and 6 degrees and increasing to about 10 metres per degree of warming between 6 and 9 degrees. Each of these thresholds gives rise to hysteresis behaviour: that is, the currently observed ice-sheet configuration is not regained even if temperatures are reversed to present-day levels. In particular, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet does not regrow to its modern extent until temperatures are at least one degree Celsius lower than pre-industrial levels. Our results show that if the Paris Agreement is not met, Antarctica’s long-term sea-level contribution will dramatically increase and exceed that of all other sources.

Suggested Citation

  • Julius Garbe & Torsten Albrecht & Anders Levermann & Jonathan F. Donges & Ricarda Winkelmann, 2020. "The hysteresis of the Antarctic Ice Sheet," Nature, Nature, vol. 585(7826), pages 538-544, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:585:y:2020:i:7826:d:10.1038_s41586-020-2727-5
    DOI: 10.1038/s41586-020-2727-5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2727-5
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41586-020-2727-5?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Georgii Riabov & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2021. "Policy with stochastic hysteresis," Papers 2104.10225, arXiv.org.
    2. Tessa Möller & Annika Ernest Högner & Carl-Friedrich Schleussner & Samuel Bien & Niklas H. Kitzmann & Robin D. Lamboll & Joeri Rogelj & Jonathan F. Donges & Johan Rockström & Nico Wunderling, 2024. "Achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions critical to limit climate tipping risks," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.
    3. Geon-Il Kim & Ji-Hoon Oh & Na-Yeon Shin & Soon-Il An & Sang-Wook Yeh & Jongsoo Shin & Jong-Seong Kug, 2024. "Deep ocean warming-induced El Niño changes," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-8, December.
    4. Simon Dietz & Felix Koninx, 2022. "Economic impacts of melting of the Antarctic Ice Sheet," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    5. William N. Rom, 2023. "Annals of Education: Teaching Climate Change and Global Public Health," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 21(1), pages 1-16, December.
    6. Eder, Christina & Stadelmann-Steffen, Isabelle, 2023. "Bringing the political system (back) into social tipping relevant to sustainability," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    7. Michael E. Weber & Nicholas R. Golledge & Chris J. Fogwill & Chris S. M. Turney & Zoë A. Thomas, 2021. "Decadal-scale onset and termination of Antarctic ice-mass loss during the last deglaciation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-13, December.
    8. Winkelmann, Ricarda & Donges, Jonathan F. & Smith, E. Keith & Milkoreit, Manjana & Eder, Christina & Heitzig, Jobst & Katsanidou, Alexia & Wiedermann, Marc & Wunderling, Nico & Lenton, Timothy M., 2022. "Social tipping processes towards climate action: A conceptual framework," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:585:y:2020:i:7826:d:10.1038_s41586-020-2727-5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.