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Information gerrymandering and undemocratic decisions

Author

Listed:
  • Alexander J. Stewart

    (University of Houston)

  • Mohsen Mosleh

    (Sloan School of Management, MIT)

  • Marina Diakonova

    (University of Oxford)

  • Antonio A. Arechar

    (Sloan School of Management, MIT
    Center for Research and Teaching in Economics (CIDE))

  • David G. Rand

    (Sloan School of Management, MIT)

  • Joshua B. Plotkin

    (University of Pennsylvania)

Abstract

People must integrate disparate sources of information when making decisions, especially in social contexts. But information does not always flow freely. It can be constrained by social networks1–3 and distorted by zealots and automated bots4. Here we develop a voter game as a model system to study information flow in collective decisions. Players are assigned to competing groups (parties) and placed on an ‘influence network’ that determines whose voting intentions each player can observe. Players are incentivized to vote according to partisan interest, but also to coordinate their vote with the entire group. Our mathematical analysis uncovers a phenomenon that we call information gerrymandering: the structure of the influence network can sway the vote outcome towards one party, even when both parties have equal sizes and each player has the same influence. A small number of zealots, when strategically placed on the influence network, can also induce information gerrymandering and thereby bias vote outcomes. We confirm the predicted effects of information gerrymandering in social network experiments with n = 2,520 human subjects. Furthermore, we identify extensive information gerrymandering in real-world influence networks, including online political discussions leading up to the US federal elections, and in historical patterns of bill co-sponsorship in the US Congress and European legislatures. Our analysis provides an account of the vulnerabilities of collective decision-making to systematic distortion by restricted information flow. Our analysis also highlights a group-level social dilemma: information gerrymandering can enable one party to sway decisions in its favour, but when multiple parties engage in gerrymandering the group loses its ability to reach consensus and remains trapped in deadlock.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexander J. Stewart & Mohsen Mosleh & Marina Diakonova & Antonio A. Arechar & David G. Rand & Joshua B. Plotkin, 2019. "Information gerrymandering and undemocratic decisions," Nature, Nature, vol. 573(7772), pages 117-121, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:573:y:2019:i:7772:d:10.1038_s41586-019-1507-6
    DOI: 10.1038/s41586-019-1507-6
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    1. repec:cup:judgdm:v:15:y:2020:i:1:p:1-6 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Kazutoshi Sasahara & Wen Chen & Hao Peng & Giovanni Luca Ciampaglia & Alessandro Flammini & Filippo Menczer, 2021. "Social influence and unfollowing accelerate the emergence of echo chambers," Journal of Computational Social Science, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 381-402, May.
    3. Zhang, Hong, 2022. "Effects of stubborn players and noise on the evolution of cooperation in spatial prisoner’s dilemma game," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 165(P1).
    4. repec:cup:judgdm:v:16:y:2021:i:6:p:1413-1438 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Jacqueline N. Zadelaar & Joost A. Agelink van Rentergem & Jessica V. Schaaf & Tycho J. Dekkers & Nathalie de Vent & Laura M. S. Dekkers & Maria C. Olthof & Brenda R. J. Jansen & Hilde M. Huizenga, 2021. "Development of decision making based on internal and external information: A hierarchical Bayesian approach," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 16(6), pages 1413-1438, November.
    6. Andreas Bjerre-Nielsen & Martin Benedikt Busch, 2022. "Statistical inference in social networks: how sampling bias and uncertainty shape decisions," Papers 2205.13046, arXiv.org.
    7. Aymanns, Christoph & Foerster, Jakob & Georg, Co-Pierre & Weber, Matthias, 2022. "Fake News in Social Networks," SocArXiv y4mkd, Center for Open Science.
    8. Matthew I. Jones & Antonio D. Sirianni & Feng Fu, 2022. "Polarization, abstention, and the median voter theorem," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-12, December.
    9. Astrid Dannenberg & Gunnar Gutsche & Marlene Batzke & Sven Christens & Daniel Engler & Fabian Mankat & Sophia Moeller & Eva Weingaertner & Andreas Ernst & Marcel Lumkowsky & Georg von Wangenheim & Ger, 2022. "The effects of norms on environmental behavior," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202219, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    10. Abigail Z. Jacobs & Duncan J. Watts, 2021. "A Large-Scale Comparative Study of Informal Social Networks in Firms," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(9), pages 5489-5509, September.
    11. Lin, Thung-Hong & Chang, Min-Chiao & Chang, Chun-Chih & Chou, Ya-Hsuan, 2022. "Government-sponsored disinformation and the severity of respiratory infection epidemics including COVID-19: A global analysis, 2001–2020," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 296(C).
    12. Mohsen Mosleh & Alexander J. Stewart & Joshua B. Plotkin & David G. Rand, 2020. "Prosociality in the economic Dictator Game is associated with less parochialism and greater willingness to vote for intergroup compromise," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 15(1), pages 1-6, January.
    13. Philipp Lorenz-Spreen & Stephan Lewandowsky & Cass R. Sunstein & Ralph Hertwig, 2020. "How behavioural sciences can promote truth, autonomy and democratic discourse online," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 4(11), pages 1102-1109, November.

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