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Nonlinear rise in Greenland runoff in response to post-industrial Arctic warming

Author

Listed:
  • Luke D. Trusel

    (Rowan University
    Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution)

  • Sarah B. Das

    (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution)

  • Matthew B. Osman

    (Massachusetts Institute of Technology/Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution)

  • Matthew J. Evans

    (Wheaton College)

  • Ben E. Smith

    (University of Washington)

  • Xavier Fettweis

    (University of Liège)

  • Joseph R. McConnell

    (Desert Research Institute)

  • Brice P. Y. Noël

    (Utrecht University)

  • Michiel R. Broeke

    (Utrecht University)

Abstract

The Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) is a growing contributor to global sea-level rise1, with recent ice mass loss dominated by surface meltwater runoff2,3. Satellite observations reveal positive trends in GrIS surface melt extent4, but melt variability, intensity and runoff remain uncertain before the satellite era. Here we present the first continuous, multi-century and observationally constrained record of GrIS surface melt intensity and runoff, revealing that the magnitude of recent GrIS melting is exceptional over at least the last 350 years. We develop this record through stratigraphic analysis of central west Greenland ice cores, and demonstrate that measurements of refrozen melt layers in percolation zone ice cores can be used to quantifiably, and reproducibly, reconstruct past melt rates. We show significant (P

Suggested Citation

  • Luke D. Trusel & Sarah B. Das & Matthew B. Osman & Matthew J. Evans & Ben E. Smith & Xavier Fettweis & Joseph R. McConnell & Brice P. Y. Noël & Michiel R. Broeke, 2018. "Nonlinear rise in Greenland runoff in response to post-industrial Arctic warming," Nature, Nature, vol. 564(7734), pages 104-108, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:564:y:2018:i:7734:d:10.1038_s41586-018-0752-4
    DOI: 10.1038/s41586-018-0752-4
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2022. "Probability assessments of an ice-free Arctic: Comparing statistical and climate model projections," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(2), pages 520-534.
    2. Jonathon R. Preece & Thomas L. Mote & Judah Cohen & Lori J. Wachowicz & John A. Knox & Marco Tedesco & Gabriel J. Kooperman, 2023. "Summer atmospheric circulation over Greenland in response to Arctic amplification and diminished spring snow cover," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-15, December.
    3. Sandra Gschnaller, 2020. "The albedo loss from the melting of the Greenland ice sheet and the social cost of carbon," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(4), pages 2201-2231, December.
    4. Brice Noël & Jan T. M. Lenaerts & William H. Lipscomb & Katherine Thayer-Calder & Michiel R. Broeke, 2022. "Peak refreezing in the Greenland firn layer under future warming scenarios," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    5. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2019. "Probability Assessments of an Ice-Free Arctic: Comparing Statistical and Climate Model Projections," PIER Working Paper Archive 19-021, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.

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