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Greenland ice sheet runoff reduced by meltwater refreezing in bare ice

Author

Listed:
  • Matthew G. Cooper

    (University of California
    Sierra Crest Analytics)

  • Laurence C. Smith

    (Brown University
    Brown University)

  • Åsa K. Rennermalm

    (The State University of New Jersey)

  • Jonathan C. Ryan

    (Duke University)

  • Lincoln H. Pitcher

    (University of California)

  • Glen E. Liston

    (Colorado State University)

  • Clément Miège

    (The State University of New Jersey
    University of Utah)

  • Sarah W. Cooley

    (Duke University)

  • Dirk As

    (Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland)

Abstract

The contribution of Greenland Ice Sheet meltwater runoff to global sea-level rise is accelerating due to increased melting of its bare-ice ablation zone. There is growing evidence, however, that climate models overestimate runoff from this critical area of the ice sheet. Climate models traditionally assume that all bare-ice runoff enters the ocean, unlike porous firn, in which some meltwater is retained and/or refrozen. We used field measurements and numerical modeling to reveal that extensive retention and refreezing also occurs in bare glacier ice. We found that, from 2009 to 2018, meltwater refreezing in bare, porous glacier ice reduced runoff by an estimated 11–17 Gt a−1 in southwest Greenland alone, equivalent to 9–15% of this sector’s annual meltwater runoff simulated by climate models. This mass retention explains evidence from prior studies of runoff overestimation on bare ice by current generation climate models and may represent an overlooked buffer on projected runoff increases. Inclusion of bare-ice retention and refreezing processes in climate models therefore has immediate potential to improve forecasts of ice sheet runoff and its contribution to sea-level rise.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthew G. Cooper & Laurence C. Smith & Åsa K. Rennermalm & Jonathan C. Ryan & Lincoln H. Pitcher & Glen E. Liston & Clément Miège & Sarah W. Cooley & Dirk As, 2025. "Greenland ice sheet runoff reduced by meltwater refreezing in bare ice," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-11, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:16:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-025-62281-0
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-62281-0
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    as
    1. Luke D. Trusel & Sarah B. Das & Matthew B. Osman & Matthew J. Evans & Ben E. Smith & Xavier Fettweis & Joseph R. McConnell & Brice P. Y. Noël & Michiel R. Broeke, 2018. "Nonlinear rise in Greenland runoff in response to post-industrial Arctic warming," Nature, Nature, vol. 564(7734), pages 104-108, December.
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    3. Jonathan C. Ryan & Alun Hubbard & Marek Stibal & Tristram D. Irvine-Fynn & Joseph Cook & Laurence C. Smith & Karen Cameron & Jason Box, 2018. "Dark zone of the Greenland Ice Sheet controlled by distributed biologically-active impurities," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 9(1), pages 1-10, December.
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