IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/nature/v457y2009i7228d10.1038_nature07675.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Changes in the phase of the annual cycle of surface temperature

Author

Listed:
  • A. R. Stine

    (University of California, Berkeley, California, 94720, USA)

  • P. Huybers

    (Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts, 02138, USA)

  • I. Y. Fung

    (University of California, Berkeley, California, 94720, USA)

Abstract

The annual cycle in the Earth’s surface temperature is extremely large—comparable in magnitude to the glacial–interglacial cycles over most of the planet. Trends in the phase and the amplitude of the annual cycle have been observed, but the causes and significance of these changes remain poorly understood—in part because we lack an understanding of the natural variability. Here we show that the phase of the annual cycle of surface temperature over extratropical land shifted towards earlier seasons by 1.7 days between 1954 and 2007; this change is highly anomalous with respect to earlier variations, which we interpret as being indicative of the natural range. Significant changes in the amplitude of the annual cycle are also observed between 1954 and 2007. These shifts in the annual cycles appear to be related, in part, to changes in the northern annular mode of climate variability, although the land phase shift is significantly larger than that predicted by trends in the northern annular mode alone. Few of the climate models presented by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reproduce the observed decrease in amplitude and none reproduce the shift towards earlier seasons.

Suggested Citation

  • A. R. Stine & P. Huybers & I. Y. Fung, 2009. "Changes in the phase of the annual cycle of surface temperature," Nature, Nature, vol. 457(7228), pages 435-440, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:457:y:2009:i:7228:d:10.1038_nature07675
    DOI: 10.1038/nature07675
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/nature07675
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/nature07675?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Weixiong Yan & Junfang Zhao & Jianping Li & Yunxia Wang, 2021. "Assessment of Seasonal Variability of Extreme Temperature in Mainland China under Climate Change," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-19, November.
    2. Jajcay, Nikola, 2018. "Spatial and temporal scales of atmospheric dynamics," Thesis Commons ar8ks, Center for Open Science.
    3. Joshua S. North & Erin M. Schliep & Christopher K. Wikle, 2021. "On the spatial and temporal shift in the archetypal seasonal temperature cycle as driven by annual and semi‐annual harmonics," Environmetrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(6), September.
    4. Torbjørn Lorentzen, 2020. "Climate change and winter road maintenance," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 161(1), pages 225-242, July.
    5. Guttorp Peter, 2012. "Climate Statistics and Public Policy," Statistics, Politics and Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-17, March.
    6. Graciano Yumul & Carla Dimalanta & Nathaniel Servando & Nathaniel Cruz, 2013. "Abnormal weather events in 2009, increased precipitation and disastrous impacts in the Philippines," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 118(3), pages 715-727, June.
    7. Xu Lian & Sujong Jeong & Chang-Eui Park & Hao Xu & Laurent Z. X. Li & Tao Wang & Pierre Gentine & Josep Peñuelas & Shilong Piao, 2022. "Biophysical impacts of northern vegetation changes on seasonal warming patterns," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    8. Tommaso Proietti & Eric Hillebrand, 2017. "Seasonal changes in central England temperatures," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 180(3), pages 769-791, June.
    9. Fernando Taboada & Ricardo Anadón, 2012. "Patterns of change in sea surface temperature in the North Atlantic during the last three decades: beyond mean trends," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 115(2), pages 419-431, November.
    10. R. Iestyn Woolway, 2023. "The pace of shifting seasons in lakes," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    11. Stephen L Katz & Stephanie E Hampton & Lyubov R Izmest'eva & Marianne V Moore, 2011. "Influence of Long-Distance Climate Teleconnection on Seasonality of Water Temperature in the World's Largest Lake - Lake Baikal, Siberia," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 6(2), pages 1-10, February.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:457:y:2009:i:7228:d:10.1038_nature07675. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.