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Predicted recurrences of mass coral mortality in the Indian Ocean

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  • Charles R. C. Sheppard

    (University of Warwick)

Abstract

In 1998, more than 90% of shallow corals were killed on most Indian Ocean reefs1. High sea surface temperature (SST) was a primary cause2,3, acting directly or by interacting with other factors3,4,5,6,7. Mean SSTs have been forecast to rise above the 1998 values in a few decades2,3; however, forecast SSTs rarely flow seamlessly from historical data, or may show erroneous seasonal oscillations, precluding an accurate prediction of when lethal SSTs will recur. Differential acclimation by corals in different places complicates this further3,7,8. Here I scale forecast SSTs at 33 Indian Ocean sites where most shallow corals died in 1998 (ref. 1) to identify geographical patterns in the timing of probable repeat occurrences. Reefs located 10–15° south will be affected every 5 years by 2010–2025. North and south from this, dates recede in a pattern not directly related to present SSTs; paradoxically, some of the warmest sites may be affected last. Temperatures lethal to corals vary in this region by 6 °C, and acclimation of a modest 2 °C by corals could prolong their survival by nearly 100 years.

Suggested Citation

  • Charles R. C. Sheppard, 2003. "Predicted recurrences of mass coral mortality in the Indian Ocean," Nature, Nature, vol. 425(6955), pages 294-297, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:425:y:2003:i:6955:d:10.1038_nature01987
    DOI: 10.1038/nature01987
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    Cited by:

    1. R. Buddemeier & Diana Lane & J. Martinich, 2011. "Modeling regional coral reef responses to global warming and changes in ocean chemistry: Caribbean case study," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(3), pages 375-397, December.
    2. Maina, Joseph & Venus, Valentijn & McClanahan, Timothy R. & Ateweberhan, Mebrahtu, 2008. "Modelling susceptibility of coral reefs to environmental stress using remote sensing data and GIS models," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 212(3), pages 180-199.
    3. Nicholas A J Graham & Tim R McClanahan & M Aaron MacNeil & Shaun K Wilson & Nicholas V C Polunin & Simon Jennings & Pascale Chabanet & Susan Clark & Mark D Spalding & Yves Letourneur & Lionel Bigot & , 2008. "Climate Warming, Marine Protected Areas and the Ocean-Scale Integrity of Coral Reef Ecosystems," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 3(8), pages 1-9, August.
    4. Alleyne, Dillon & Gomes, Charmaine & Lorde, Troy & Phillips, Willard, 2013. "An assessment of the economic and social impacts of climate change on the Coastal and Marine Sector in the Caribbean," Sede Subregional de la CEPAL para el Caribe (Estudios e Investigaciones) 38279, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    5. Fiona J Webster & Russell C Babcock & Mike Van Keulen & Neil R Loneragan, 2015. "Macroalgae Inhibits Larval Settlement and Increases Recruit Mortality at Ningaloo Reef, Western Australia," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(4), pages 1-14, April.
    6. -, 2011. "An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the coastal and marine sector in Saint Kitts And Nevis," Sede Subregional de la CEPAL para el Caribe (Estudios e Investigaciones) 38607, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    7. Yee, Susan Harrell & Santavy, Deborah L. & Barron, Mace G., 2008. "Comparing environmental influences on coral bleaching across and within species using clustered binomial regression," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 218(1), pages 162-174.
    8. -, 2011. "An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the coastal and marine sector in the British Virgin Islands," Sede Subregional de la CEPAL para el Caribe (Estudios e Investigaciones) 38609, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    9. Timothy McClanahan & Joseph Maina & Mebrahtu Ateweberhan, 2015. "Regional coral responses to climate disturbances and warming is predicted by multivariate stress model and not temperature threshold metrics," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 131(4), pages 607-620, August.

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