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Comparing environmental influences on coral bleaching across and within species using clustered binomial regression

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  • Yee, Susan Harrell
  • Santavy, Deborah L.
  • Barron, Mace G.

Abstract

Differential susceptibility among reef-building coral species can lead to community shifts and loss of diversity as a result of temperature-induced mass bleaching events. We evaluate environmental influences on coral colony bleaching over an 8-year period in the Florida Keys, USA. Clustered binomial regression is used to develop models incorporating taxon-specific responses to the environment in order to identify conditions and species for which bleaching is likely to be severe. By building three separate models incorporating environment, community composition, and taxon-specific responses to environment, we show observed prevalence of bleaching reflects an interaction between community composition and local environmental conditions. Environmental variables, including elevated sea temperature, solar radiation, and reef depth, explained 90% and 78% of variability in colony bleaching across space and time, respectively. The effects of environmental variables were only partially explained (33% of variability) by corresponding differences in community composition. Taxon-specific models indicated individual coral species responded differently to local environmental conditions and had different sensitivities to temperature-induced bleaching. For many coral species, but not all, bleaching was exacerbated by high solar radiation. A 25% reduction in the probability of bleaching in shallow locations for one species may reflect an ability to acclimatize to local conditions. Overall, model results indicate predictions of coral bleaching require knowledge of not just the environmental conditions or community composition, but the responses of individual species to the environment. Model development provides a useful tool for coral reef management by quantifying the influence of the local environment on individual species bleaching sensitivities, identifying susceptible species, and predicting the likelihood of mass bleaching events with changing environmental conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Yee, Susan Harrell & Santavy, Deborah L. & Barron, Mace G., 2008. "Comparing environmental influences on coral bleaching across and within species using clustered binomial regression," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 218(1), pages 162-174.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:218:y:2008:i:1:p:162-174
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2008.06.037
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Charles R. C. Sheppard, 2003. "Predicted recurrences of mass coral mortality in the Indian Ocean," Nature, Nature, vol. 425(6955), pages 294-297, September.
    2. Maina, Joseph & Venus, Valentijn & McClanahan, Timothy R. & Ateweberhan, Mebrahtu, 2008. "Modelling susceptibility of coral reefs to environmental stress using remote sensing data and GIS models," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 212(3), pages 180-199.
    3. Rob Rowan & Nancy Knowlton & Andrew Baker & Javier Jara, 1997. "Landscape ecology of algal symbionts creates variation in episodes of coral bleaching," Nature, Nature, vol. 388(6639), pages 265-269, July.
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    1. Yee, Susan Harrell & Santavy, Deborah L. & Barron, Mace G., 2011. "Assessing the effects of disease and bleaching on Florida Keys corals by fitting population models to data," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(7), pages 1323-1332.
    2. Timothy McClanahan & Joseph Maina & Mebrahtu Ateweberhan, 2015. "Regional coral responses to climate disturbances and warming is predicted by multivariate stress model and not temperature threshold metrics," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 131(4), pages 607-620, August.

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