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Ecological interference between fatal diseases

Author

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  • P. Rohani

    (University of Georgia)

  • C. J. Green

    (University of Cambridge)

  • N. B. Mantilla-Beniers

    (University of Cambridge)

  • B. T. Grenfell

    (University of Cambridge)

Abstract

An important issue in population biology is the dynamic interaction between pathogens. Interest has focused mainly on the indirect interaction of pathogen strains, mediated by cross immunity1,2,3,4. However, a mechanism has recently been proposed for ‘ecological interference’ between pathogens through the removal of individuals from the susceptible pool after an acute infection. To explore this possibility, we have analysed and modelled historical measles and whooping cough records. Here we show that ecological interference is particularly strong when fatal infections permanently remove susceptibles. Disease interference has substantial dynamical consequences, making multi-annual outbreaks of different infections characteristically out of phase. So, when disease prevalence is high and is associated with significant mortality, it might be impossible to understand epidemic patterns by studying pathogens in isolation. This new ecological null model has important consequences for understanding the multi-strain dynamics of pathogens such as dengue and echoviruses.

Suggested Citation

  • P. Rohani & C. J. Green & N. B. Mantilla-Beniers & B. T. Grenfell, 2003. "Ecological interference between fatal diseases," Nature, Nature, vol. 422(6934), pages 885-888, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:422:y:2003:i:6934:d:10.1038_nature01542
    DOI: 10.1038/nature01542
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    Cited by:

    1. Sourya Shrestha & Aaron A King & Pejman Rohani, 2011. "Statistical Inference for Multi-Pathogen Systems," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(8), pages 1-14, August.
    2. Frédéric M Hamelin & Linda J S Allen & Vrushali A Bokil & Louis J Gross & Frank M Hilker & Michael J Jeger & Carrie A Manore & Alison G Power & Megan A Rúa & Nik J Cunniffe, 2019. "Coinfections by noninteracting pathogens are not independent and require new tests of interaction," PLOS Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(12), pages 1-25, December.
    3. Elise Vaumourin & Patrick Gasqui & Jean-Philippe Buffet & Jean-Louis Chapuis & Benoît Pisanu & Elisabeth Ferquel & Muriel Vayssier-Taussat & Gwenaël Vourc’h, 2013. "A Probabilistic Model in Cross-Sectional Studies for Identifying Interactions between Two Persistent Vector-Borne Pathogens in Reservoir Populations," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(6), pages 1-9, June.
    4. Hogan, Alexandra B. & Glass, Kathryn & Moore, Hannah C. & Anderssen, Robert S., 2016. "Exploring the dynamics of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) transmission in children," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 78-85.

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