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Signature of recent climate change in frequencies of natural atmospheric circulation regimes

Author

Listed:
  • S. Corti

    (CINECA-Interuniversity Computing Centre)

  • F. Molteni

    (CINECA-Interuniversity Computing Centre
    The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics)

  • T. N. Palmer

    (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts)

Abstract

A crucial question in the global-warming debate concerns the extent to which recent climate change is caused by anthropogenic forcing or is a manifestation of natural climate variability1. It is commonly thought that the climate response to anthropogenic forcing should be distinct from the patterns of natural climate variability. But, on the basis of studies of nonlinear chaotic models with preferred states or ‘regimes’, it has been argued2,3 that the spatial patterns of the response to anthropogenic forcing may in fact project principally onto modes of natural climate variability. Here we use atmospheric circulation data from the Northern Hemisphere to show that recent climate change can be interpreted in terms of changes in the frequency of occurrence of natural atmospheric circulation regimes. We conclude that recent Northern Hemisphere warming may be more directly related to the thermal structure of these circulation regimes than to any anthropogenic forcing pattern itself. Conversely, the fact that observed climate change projects onto natural patterns cannot be used as evidence of no anthropogenic effect on climate. These results may help explain possible differences between trends in surface temperature and satellite-based temperature in the free atmosphere4,5,6.

Suggested Citation

  • S. Corti & F. Molteni & T. N. Palmer, 1999. "Signature of recent climate change in frequencies of natural atmospheric circulation regimes," Nature, Nature, vol. 398(6730), pages 799-802, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:398:y:1999:i:6730:d:10.1038_19745
    DOI: 10.1038/19745
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    Cited by:

    1. Burman, Prabir & Polonik, Wolfgang, 2009. "Multivariate mode hunting: Data analytic tools with measures of significance," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(6), pages 1198-1218, July.
    2. Pascal Yiou & Julien Cattiaux & Aurélien Ribes & Robert Vautard & Mathieu Vrac, 2018. "Recent Trends in the Recurrence of North Atlantic Atmospheric Circulation Patterns," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2018, pages 1-8, February.
    3. Hsu, Chih-Yuan & Wu, Tiee-Jian, 2013. "Efficient estimation of the mode of continuous multivariate data," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 148-159.
    4. W. M. Schaffer, 2009. "A Surfeit of Cycles," Energy & Environment, , vol. 20(6), pages 985-996, October.
    5. M. Carmen Alvarez-Castro & Davide Faranda & Pascal Yiou, 2018. "Atmospheric Dynamics Leading to West European Summer Hot Temperatures Since 1851," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2018, pages 1-10, January.
    6. Willie Soon & Sallie L. Baliunas & Arthur B. Robinson & Zachary W. Robinson, 1999. "Environmental Effects of Increased Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide," Energy & Environment, , vol. 10(5), pages 439-468, September.
    7. Smaldino, Paul E., 2013. "Measures of individual uncertainty for ecological models: Variance and entropy," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 254(C), pages 50-53.
    8. Jessie Cherry & Heidi Cullen & Martin Visbeck & Arthur Small & Cintia Uvo, 2005. "Impacts of the North Atlantic Oscillation on Scandinavian Hydropower Production and Energy Markets," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 19(6), pages 673-691, December.
    9. Ruxandra Malina Petrescu-Mag & Philippe Burny & Ioan Banatean-Dunea & Dacinia Crina Petrescu, 2022. "How Climate Change Science Is Reflected in People’s Minds. A Cross-Country Study on People’s Perceptions of Climate Change," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(7), pages 1-25, April.
    10. Fernández, Isabel & Hernández, Carmen N. & Pacheco, José M., 2003. "Is the North Atlantic Oscillation just a pink noise?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 323(C), pages 705-714.
    11. Bartczak Arkadiusz & Araźny Andrzej & Krzemiński Michał & Maszewski Rafał, 2022. "Hydrological Dry Periods versus Atmospheric Circulations in the Lower Vistula Basin (Poland) in 1954–2018," Quaestiones Geographicae, Sciendo, vol. 41(1), pages 107-125, March.

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