IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcom/v16y2025i1d10.1038_s41467-025-58788-1.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Pacific sub-decadal sea surface temperature variations contributed to recent Antarctic Sea ice decline trend

Author

Listed:
  • Qigang Wu

    (Fudan University
    Fudan University)

  • Yejian Ma

    (Fudan University)

  • Aixue Hu

    (National Center for Atmospheric Research)

  • Nan Rosenbloom

    (National Center for Atmospheric Research)

  • Lei Zhang

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Heng Liu

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Shizuo Liu

    (Duke University)

  • Luping Yang

    (China Meteorological Administration Training Centre Hunan Branch)

  • Chang Yang

    (Fudan University)

Abstract

Total sea ice extent (SIE) across the Southern Ocean increased from 1979-2014, but declined rapidly after 2016. Significant sea ice decline has emerged since the peak of SIE in 2014, coincident with Pacific sub-decadal sea surface temperature (SST) trends resembling a strong La Niña-like cold condition and the negative phase of the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO). Previous studies suggest that the warm subsurface Southern Ocean was an important driver of the low sea ice in spring 2016 and the sustained low sea ice state since. Here we show that the observed atmospheric circulation changes near Antarctica during the period from June 2013-May 2023 are conducive to increasing surface temperature via warm advection from north and reducing Antarctic SIE, involving a deepening of the Amundsen Sea Low and anomalous high pressures over the Weddell Sea and West Pacific sectors. Through coupled pacemaker experiments, we demonstrate that Pacific sub-decadal SST trends have dominantly driven these atmospheric circulation changes through tropical–polar teleconnections and also induced significant Southern Ocean subsurface warming in the recent decade. The consequent decreasing SIE has enhanced the Southern Ocean subsurface warming effect and significantly contributed to the rapid Antarctic SIE decline.

Suggested Citation

  • Qigang Wu & Yejian Ma & Aixue Hu & Nan Rosenbloom & Lei Zhang & Heng Liu & Shizuo Liu & Luping Yang & Chang Yang, 2025. "Pacific sub-decadal sea surface temperature variations contributed to recent Antarctic Sea ice decline trend," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-14, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:16:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-025-58788-1
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-58788-1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-58788-1
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41467-025-58788-1?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ben Bronselaer & Michael Winton & Stephen M. Griffies & William J. Hurlin & Keith B. Rodgers & Olga V. Sergienko & Ronald J. Stouffer & Joellen L. Russell, 2018. "Change in future climate due to Antarctic meltwater," Nature, Nature, vol. 564(7734), pages 53-58, December.
    2. Liping Zhang & Thomas L. Delworth & William Cooke & Xiaosong Yang, 2019. "Natural variability of Southern Ocean convection as a driver of observed climate trends," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(1), pages 59-65, January.
    3. Xichen Li & David M. Holland & Edwin P. Gerber & Changhyun Yoo, 2014. "Impacts of the north and tropical Atlantic Ocean on the Antarctic Peninsula and sea ice," Nature, Nature, vol. 505(7484), pages 538-542, January.
    4. Eui-Seok Chung & Seong-Joong Kim & Axel Timmermann & Kyung-Ja Ha & Sang-Ki Lee & Malte F. Stuecker & Keith B. Rodgers & Sun-Seon Lee & Lei Huang, 2022. "Antarctic sea-ice expansion and Southern Ocean cooling linked to tropical variability," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 12(5), pages 461-468, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yusen Liu & Cheng Sun & Jianping Li & Fred Kucharski & Emanuele Lorenzo & Muhammad Adnan Abid & Xichen Li, 2023. "Decadal oscillation provides skillful multiyear predictions of Antarctic sea ice," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-12, December.
    2. Camille Hayatte Akhoudas & Jean-Baptiste Sallée & Gilles Reverdin & F. Alexander Haumann & Etienne Pauthenet & Christopher C. Chapman & Félix Margirier & Claire Lo Monaco & Nicolas Metzl & Julie Meill, 2023. "Isotopic evidence for an intensified hydrological cycle in the Indian sector of the Southern Ocean," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    3. Pete D. Akers & Joël Savarino & Nicolas Caillon & Aymeric P. M. Servettaz & Emmanuel Meur & Olivier Magand & Jean Martins & Cécile Agosta & Peter Crockford & Kanon Kobayashi & Shohei Hattori & Mark Cu, 2022. "Sunlight-driven nitrate loss records Antarctic surface mass balance," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    4. James R. Jordan & B. W. J. Miles & G. H. Gudmundsson & S. S. R. Jamieson & A. Jenkins & C. R. Stokes, 2023. "Increased warm water intrusions could cause mass loss in East Antarctica during the next 200 years," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    5. Hannes Hansen-Magnusson, 2022. "Making Polar and Ocean Governance Future-Proof," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 10(3), pages 60-69.
    6. Kyle R. Clem & Deniz Bozkurt & Daemon Kennett & John C. King & John Turner, 2022. "Central tropical Pacific convection drives extreme high temperatures and surface melt on the Larsen C Ice Shelf, Antarctic Peninsula," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-13, December.
    7. Yurong Hou & Shang-Ping Xie & Nathaniel C. Johnson & Chunzai Wang & Changhyun Yoo & Kaiqiang Deng & Weijun Sun & Xichen Li, 2024. "Unveiling the Indian Ocean forcing on winter eastern warming – western cooling pattern over North America," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.
    8. Chen Cheng & Adrian Jenkins & Paul R. Holland & Zhaomin Wang & Jihai Dong & Chengyan Liu, 2024. "Ice shelf basal channel shape determines channelized ice-ocean interactions," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-14, December.
    9. Szabolcs Blazsek & Alvaro Escribano, 2022. "Robust Estimation and Forecasting of Climate Change Using Score-Driven Ice-Age Models," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-29, February.
    10. Gagan Mandal & Jia-Yuh Yu & Shih-Yu Lee, 2022. "The Roles of Orbital and Meltwater Climate Forcings on the Southern Ocean Dynamics during the Last Deglaciation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-17, March.
    11. Carmen de la Cruz-Lovera & Francisco Manzano-Agugliaro & Esther Salmerón-Manzano & José-Luis de la Cruz-Fernández & Alberto-Jesus Perea-Moreno, 2019. "Date Seeds ( Phoenix dactylifera L. ) Valorization for Boilers in the Mediterranean Climate," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-14, January.
    12. Jun-Young Park & Fabian Schloesser & Axel Timmermann & Dipayan Choudhury & June-Yi Lee & Arjun Babu Nellikkattil, 2023. "Future sea-level projections with a coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice-sheet model," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    13. Hannes Hansen-Magnusson, 2022. "Making Polar and Ocean Governance Future-Proof," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 10(3), pages 60-69.
    14. Dawei Li & Robert M. DeConto & David Pollard & Yongyun Hu, 2024. "Competing climate feedbacks of ice sheet freshwater discharge in a warming world," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-12, December.
    15. David K. Hutchinson & Laurie Menviel & Katrin J. Meissner & Andrew McC. Hogg, 2024. "East Antarctic warming forced by ice loss during the Last Interglacial," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.
    16. Yushi Morioka & Liping Zhang & William Cooke & Masami Nonaka & Swadhin K. Behera & Syukuro Manabe, 2024. "Role of anthropogenic forcing in Antarctic sea ice variability simulated in climate models," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.
    17. Nicholas R. Golledge, 2020. "Long‐term projections of sea‐level rise from ice sheets," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 11(2), March.
    18. Ann Holbourn & Wolfgang Kuhnt & Denise K. Kulhanek & Gregory Mountain & Yair Rosenthal & Takuya Sagawa & Julia Lübbers & Nils Andersen, 2024. "Re-organization of Pacific overturning circulation across the Miocene Climate Optimum," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-15, December.
    19. Fenzhen Su & Rong Fan & Fengqin Yan & Michael Meadows & Vincent Lyne & Po Hu & Xiangzhou Song & Tianyu Zhang & Zenghong Liu & Chenghu Zhou & Tao Pei & Xiaomei Yang & Yunyan Du & Zexun Wei & Fan Wang &, 2023. "Widespread global disparities between modelled and observed mid-depth ocean currents," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, December.
    20. Li Zhang & Xuya Ren & Wenju Cai & Xichen Li & Lixin Wu, 2024. "Weakened western Indian Ocean dominance on Antarctic sea ice variability in a changing climate," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:16:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-025-58788-1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.