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Change in future climate due to Antarctic meltwater

Author

Listed:
  • Ben Bronselaer

    (University of Arizona
    Princeton University Forrestal Campus
    Princeton University)

  • Michael Winton

    (Princeton University Forrestal Campus)

  • Stephen M. Griffies

    (Princeton University Forrestal Campus
    Princeton University)

  • William J. Hurlin

    (Princeton University Forrestal Campus)

  • Keith B. Rodgers

    (Princeton University)

  • Olga V. Sergienko

    (Princeton University Forrestal Campus
    Princeton University)

  • Ronald J. Stouffer

    (University of Arizona
    Princeton University Forrestal Campus)

  • Joellen L. Russell

    (University of Arizona)

Abstract

Meltwater from the Antarctic Ice Sheet is projected to cause up to one metre of sea-level rise by 2100 under the highest greenhouse gas concentration trajectory (RCP8.5) considered by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). However, the effects of meltwater from the ice sheets and ice shelves of Antarctica are not included in the widely used CMIP5 climate models, which introduces bias into IPCC climate projections. Here we assess a large ensemble simulation of the CMIP5 model ‘GFDL ESM2M’ that accounts for RCP8.5-projected Antarctic Ice Sheet meltwater. We find that, relative to the standard RCP8.5 scenario, accounting for meltwater delays the exceedance of the maximum global-mean atmospheric warming targets of 1.5 and 2 degrees Celsius by more than a decade, enhances drying of the Southern Hemisphere and reduces drying of the Northern Hemisphere, increases the formation of Antarctic sea ice (consistent with recent observations of increasing Antarctic sea-ice area) and warms the subsurface ocean around the Antarctic coast. Moreover, the meltwater-induced subsurface ocean warming could lead to further ice-sheet and ice-shelf melting through a positive feedback mechanism, highlighting the importance of including meltwater effects in simulations of future climate.

Suggested Citation

  • Ben Bronselaer & Michael Winton & Stephen M. Griffies & William J. Hurlin & Keith B. Rodgers & Olga V. Sergienko & Ronald J. Stouffer & Joellen L. Russell, 2018. "Change in future climate due to Antarctic meltwater," Nature, Nature, vol. 564(7734), pages 53-58, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:564:y:2018:i:7734:d:10.1038_s41586-018-0712-z
    DOI: 10.1038/s41586-018-0712-z
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. James R. Jordan & B. W. J. Miles & G. H. Gudmundsson & S. S. R. Jamieson & A. Jenkins & C. R. Stokes, 2023. "Increased warm water intrusions could cause mass loss in East Antarctica during the next 200 years," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    2. Gagan Mandal & Jia-Yuh Yu & Shih-Yu Lee, 2022. "The Roles of Orbital and Meltwater Climate Forcings on the Southern Ocean Dynamics during the Last Deglaciation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-17, March.
    3. Hannes Hansen-Magnusson, 2022. "Making Polar and Ocean Governance Future-Proof," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 10(3), pages 60-69.
    4. Carmen de la Cruz-Lovera & Francisco Manzano-Agugliaro & Esther Salmerón-Manzano & José-Luis de la Cruz-Fernández & Alberto-Jesus Perea-Moreno, 2019. "Date Seeds ( Phoenix dactylifera L. ) Valorization for Boilers in the Mediterranean Climate," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-14, January.
    5. Jun-Young Park & Fabian Schloesser & Axel Timmermann & Dipayan Choudhury & June-Yi Lee & Arjun Babu Nellikkattil, 2023. "Future sea-level projections with a coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice-sheet model," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    6. Fenzhen Su & Rong Fan & Fengqin Yan & Michael Meadows & Vincent Lyne & Po Hu & Xiangzhou Song & Tianyu Zhang & Zenghong Liu & Chenghu Zhou & Tao Pei & Xiaomei Yang & Yunyan Du & Zexun Wei & Fan Wang &, 2023. "Widespread global disparities between modelled and observed mid-depth ocean currents," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, December.
    7. Nicholas R. Golledge, 2020. "Long‐term projections of sea‐level rise from ice sheets," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 11(2), March.
    8. David K. Hutchinson & Laurie Menviel & Katrin J. Meissner & Andrew McC. Hogg, 2024. "East Antarctic warming forced by ice loss during the Last Interglacial," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.
    9. Chen Cheng & Adrian Jenkins & Paul R. Holland & Zhaomin Wang & Jihai Dong & Chengyan Liu, 2024. "Ice shelf basal channel shape determines channelized ice-ocean interactions," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-14, December.
    10. Szabolcs Blazsek & Alvaro Escribano, 2022. "Robust Estimation and Forecasting of Climate Change Using Score-Driven Ice-Age Models," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-29, February.
    11. Camille Hayatte Akhoudas & Jean-Baptiste Sallée & Gilles Reverdin & F. Alexander Haumann & Etienne Pauthenet & Christopher C. Chapman & Félix Margirier & Claire Lo Monaco & Nicolas Metzl & Julie Meill, 2023. "Isotopic evidence for an intensified hydrological cycle in the Indian sector of the Southern Ocean," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    12. Pete D. Akers & Joël Savarino & Nicolas Caillon & Aymeric P. M. Servettaz & Emmanuel Meur & Olivier Magand & Jean Martins & Cécile Agosta & Peter Crockford & Kanon Kobayashi & Shohei Hattori & Mark Cu, 2022. "Sunlight-driven nitrate loss records Antarctic surface mass balance," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.

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