Somatic mutation distribution across tumour cohorts provides a signal for positive selection in cancer

Cancer gene discovery is reliant on distinguishing driver mutations from a multitude of passenger mutations in tumour genomes. While driver genes may be revealed based on excess mutation recurrence or clustering, there is a need for orthogonal principles. Here, we take advantage of the fact that non-cancer genes, containing only passenger mutations under neutral selection, exhibit a likelihood of mutagenesis in a given tumour determined by the tumour’s mutational signature and burden. This relationship can be disrupted by positive selection, leading to a difference in the distribution of mutated cases across a cohort for driver and passenger genes. We apply this principle to detect cancer drivers independently of recurrence in large pan-cancer cohorts, and show that our method (SEISMIC) performs comparably to traditional approaches and can provide resistance to known confounding mutational phenomena. Being based on a different principle, the approach provides a much-needed complement to existing methods for detecting signals of selection.