IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcom/v13y2022i1d10.1038_s41467-022-31826-y.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Rising ecosystem water demand exacerbates the lengthening of tropical dry seasons

Author

Listed:
  • Hao Xu

    (Peking University)

  • Xu Lian

    (Peking University
    Columbia University)

  • Ingrid J. Slette

    (Colorado State University
    Colorado State University
    University of California Santa Barbara)

  • Hui Yang

    (Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry)

  • Yuan Zhang

    (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, CEA CNRS UVSQ)

  • Anping Chen

    (Colorado State University
    Colorado State University)

  • Shilong Piao

    (Peking University
    State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System, Resources and Environment, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences)

Abstract

Precipitation-based assessments show a lengthening of tropical dry seasons under climate change, without considering simultaneous changes in ecosystem water demand. Here, we compare changes in tropical dry season length and timing when dry season is defined as the period when precipitation is less than: its climatological average, potential evapotranspiration, or actual evapotranspiration. While all definitions show more widespread tropical drying than wetting for 1983-2016, we find the largest fraction (48.7%) of tropical land probably experiencing longer dry seasons when dry season is defined as the period when precipitation cannot meet the need of actual evapotranspiration. Southern Amazonia (due to delayed end) and central Africa (due to earlier onset and delayed end) are hotspots of dry season lengthening, with greater certainty when accounting for water demand changes. Therefore, it is necessary to account for changing water demand when characterizing changes in tropical dry periods and ecosystem water deficits.

Suggested Citation

  • Hao Xu & Xu Lian & Ingrid J. Slette & Hui Yang & Yuan Zhang & Anping Chen & Shilong Piao, 2022. "Rising ecosystem water demand exacerbates the lengthening of tropical dry seasons," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-31826-y
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-31826-y
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-31826-y
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41467-022-31826-y?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nathan S. Debortoli & Vincent Dubreuil & Beatriz Funatsu & Florian Delahaye & Carlos Oliveira & Saulo Rodrigues-Filho & Carlos Saito & Raquel Fetter, 2015. "Rainfall patterns in the Southern Amazon: a chronological perspective (1971–2010)," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 132(2), pages 251-264, September.
    2. Aiguo Dai, 2013. "Increasing drought under global warming in observations and models," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(1), pages 52-58, January.
    3. Aiguo Dai, 2013. "Erratum: Increasing drought under global warming in observations and models," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(2), pages 171-171, February.
    4. Juan P. Boisier & Philippe Ciais & Agnès Ducharne & Matthieu Guimberteau, 2015. "Projected strengthening of Amazonian dry season by constrained climate model simulations," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(7), pages 656-660, July.
    5. Richard A. Betts & Olivier Boucher & Matthew Collins & Peter M. Cox & Peter D. Falloon & Nicola Gedney & Deborah L. Hemming & Chris Huntingford & Chris D. Jones & David M. H. Sexton & Mark J. Webb, 2007. "Projected increase in continental runoff due to plant responses to increasing carbon dioxide," Nature, Nature, vol. 448(7157), pages 1037-1041, August.
    6. Jianping Huang & Haipeng Yu & Xiaodan Guan & Guoyin Wang & Ruixia Guo, 2016. "Accelerated dryland expansion under climate change," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(2), pages 166-171, February.
    7. Justin Sheffield & Eric F. Wood & Michael L. Roderick, 2012. "Little change in global drought over the past 60 years," Nature, Nature, vol. 491(7424), pages 435-438, November.
    8. Yan Jiang & Liming Zhou & Compton J. Tucker & Ajay Raghavendra & Wenjian Hua & Yi Y. Liu & Joanna Joiner, 2019. "Widespread increase of boreal summer dry season length over the Congo rainforest," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(8), pages 617-622, August.
    9. Jiangpeng Cui & Shilong Piao & Chris Huntingford & Xuhui Wang & Xu Lian & Amulya Chevuturi & Andrew G. Turner & Gabriel J. Kooperman, 2020. "Vegetation forcing modulates global land monsoon and water resources in a CO2-enriched climate," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-11, December.
    10. P. C. D. Milly & K. A. Dunne, 2016. "Potential evapotranspiration and continental drying," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(10), pages 946-949, October.
    11. Jaya Khanna & David Medvigy & Stephan Fueglistaler & Robert Walko, 2017. "Regional dry-season climate changes due to three decades of Amazonian deforestation," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 7(3), pages 200-204, March.
    12. Martin Jung & Markus Reichstein & Philippe Ciais & Sonia I. Seneviratne & Justin Sheffield & Michael L. Goulden & Gordon Bonan & Alessandro Cescatti & Jiquan Chen & Richard de Jeu & A. Johannes Dolman, 2010. "Recent decline in the global land evapotranspiration trend due to limited moisture supply," Nature, Nature, vol. 467(7318), pages 951-954, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shan Jiang & Jian Zhou & Guojie Wang & Qigen Lin & Ziyan Chen & Yanjun Wang & Buda Su, 2022. "Cropland Exposed to Drought Is Overestimated without Considering the CO 2 Effect in the Arid Climatic Region of China," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-21, June.
    2. Sergio M. Vicente‐Serrano & Tim R. McVicar & Diego G. Miralles & Yuting Yang & Miquel Tomas‐Burguera, 2020. "Unraveling the influence of atmospheric evaporative demand on drought and its response to climate change," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 11(2), March.
    3. Ruiwen Zhang & Chengyi Zhao & Xiaofei Ma & Karthikeyan Brindha & Qifei Han & Chaofan Li & Xiaoning Zhao, 2019. "Projected Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Drought under Global Warming in Central Asia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(16), pages 1-19, August.
    4. Brian Ayugi & Zablon Weku Shilenje & Hassen Babaousmail & Kenny T. C. Lim Kam Sian & Richard Mumo & Victor Nnamdi Dike & Vedaste Iyakaremye & Abdelghani Chehbouni & Victor Ongoma, 2022. "Projected changes in meteorological drought over East Africa inferred from bias-adjusted CMIP6 models," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 113(2), pages 1151-1176, September.
    5. Rengui Jiang & Jiancang Xie & Hailong He & Jungang Luo & Jiwei Zhu, 2015. "Use of four drought indices for evaluating drought characteristics under climate change in Shaanxi, China: 1951–2012," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 75(3), pages 2885-2903, February.
    6. Ashenafi Yimam Kassaye & Guangcheng Shao & Xiaojun Wang & Shiqing Wu, 2021. "Quantification of drought severity change in Ethiopia during 1952–2017," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 5096-5121, April.
    7. L. Lin & A. Gettelman & Q. Fu & Y. Xu, 2018. "Simulated differences in 21st century aridity due to different scenarios of greenhouse gases and aerosols," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 146(3), pages 407-422, February.
    8. Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano & Miquel Tomas-Burguera & Santiago Beguería & Fergus Reig & Borja Latorre & Marina Peña-Gallardo & M. Yolanda Luna & Ana Morata & José C. González-Hidalgo, 2017. "A High Resolution Dataset of Drought Indices for Spain," Data, MDPI, vol. 2(3), pages 1-10, June.
    9. Jinquan Li & Junmin Pei & Changming Fang & Bo Li & Ming Nie, 2024. "Drought may exacerbate dryland soil inorganic carbon loss under warming climate conditions," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.
    10. Zheng Li & Tao Zhou & Xiang Zhao & Kaicheng Huang & Shan Gao & Hao Wu & Hui Luo, 2015. "Assessments of Drought Impacts on Vegetation in China with the Optimal Time Scales of the Climatic Drought Index," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-20, July.
    11. Gregory McCabe & David Wolock, 2015. "Increasing Northern Hemisphere water deficit," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 132(2), pages 237-249, September.
    12. Lei Zou & Jun Xia & Dunxian She, 2018. "Analysis of Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on Hydrological Drought: a Case Study in the Wei River Basin, China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(4), pages 1421-1438, March.
    13. Julia S. Stoyanova & Christo G. Georgiev & Plamen N. Neytchev, 2023. "Drought Monitoring in Terms of Evapotranspiration Based on Satellite Data from Meteosat in Areas of Strong Land–Atmosphere Coupling," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-21, January.
    14. Brigitte Mueller & Xuebin Zhang, 2016. "Causes of drying trends in northern hemispheric land areas in reconstructed soil moisture data," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(1), pages 255-267, January.
    15. Subhasis Mitra & Puneet Srivastava, 2017. "Spatiotemporal variability of meteorological droughts in southeastern USA," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 86(3), pages 1007-1038, April.
    16. Nam, Won-Ho & Hayes, Michael J. & Svoboda, Mark D. & Tadesse, Tsegaye & Wilhite, Donald A., 2015. "Drought hazard assessment in the context of climate change for South Korea," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 106-117.
    17. Jing Zhang & Kaushal Raj Gnyawali & Yi Shang & Yang Pu & Lijuan Miao, 2022. "Spatial agglomeration of drought-affected area detected in northern China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 112(1), pages 145-161, May.
    18. Jamal Uddin Khan & A. K. M. Saiful Islam & Mohan K. Das & Khaled Mohammed & Sujit Kumar Bala & G. M. Tarekul Islam, 2020. "Future changes in meteorological drought characteristics over Bangladesh projected by the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(2), pages 667-685, September.
    19. Wen Wang & Ye Zhu & Rengui Xu & Jintao Liu, 2015. "Drought severity change in China during 1961–2012 indicated by SPI and SPEI," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 75(3), pages 2437-2451, February.
    20. A. L. Kay & V. A. Bell & B. P. Guillod & R. G. Jones & A. C. Rudd, 2018. "National-scale analysis of low flow frequency: historical trends and potential future changes," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 147(3), pages 585-599, April.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-31826-y. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.