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A global analysis of extreme coastal water levels with implications for potential coastal overtopping

Author

Listed:
  • Rafael Almar

    (LEGOS (CNRS/IRD/CNES/Toulouse University))

  • Roshanka Ranasinghe

    (IHE Delft Institute for Water Education
    Harbour, Coastal and Offshore Engineering, Deltares
    University of Twente)

  • Erwin W. J. Bergsma

    (LEGOS (CNRS/IRD/CNES/Toulouse University)
    EOLab, French Space Agency (CNES - Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales))

  • Harold Diaz

    (LEGOS (CNRS/IRD/CNES/Toulouse University))

  • Angelique Melet

    (Mercator-Ocean)

  • Fabrice Papa

    (LEGOS (CNRS/IRD/CNES/Toulouse University)
    Universidade de Brasília (UnB), IRD, Instituto de Geociências)

  • Michalis Vousdoukas

    (European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC))

  • Panagiotis Athanasiou

    (Harbour, Coastal and Offshore Engineering, Deltares
    University of Twente)

  • Olusegun Dada

    (Federal University of Technology)

  • Luis Pedro Almeida

    (Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
    +ATLANTIC, Edifício LACS Estrada da Malveira da Serra)

  • Elodie Kestenare

    (LEGOS (CNRS/IRD/CNES/Toulouse University))

Abstract

Climate change and anthropogenic pressures are widely expected to exacerbate coastal hazards such as episodic coastal flooding. This study presents global-scale potential coastal overtopping estimates, which account for not only the effects of sea level rise and storm surge, but also for wave runup at exposed open coasts. Here we find that the globally aggregated annual overtopping hours have increased by almost 50% over the last two decades. A first-pass future assessment indicates that globally aggregated annual overtopping hours will accelerate faster than the global mean sea-level rise itself, with a clearly discernible increase occurring around mid-century regardless of climate scenario. Under RCP 8.5, the globally aggregated annual overtopping hours by the end of the 21st-century is projected to be up to 50 times larger compared to present-day. As sea level continues to rise, more regions around the world are projected to become exposed to coastal overtopping.

Suggested Citation

  • Rafael Almar & Roshanka Ranasinghe & Erwin W. J. Bergsma & Harold Diaz & Angelique Melet & Fabrice Papa & Michalis Vousdoukas & Panagiotis Athanasiou & Olusegun Dada & Luis Pedro Almeida & Elodie Kest, 2021. "A global analysis of extreme coastal water levels with implications for potential coastal overtopping," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-9, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-021-24008-9
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-24008-9
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    Cited by:

    1. Théophile Bongarts Lebbe & Hélène Rey-Valette & Éric Chaumillon & Guigone Camus & Rafael Almar & Anny Cazenave & Joachim Claudet & Nicolas Rocle & Catherine Meur-Ferec & Frédérique Viard & Denis Merci, 2021. "Designing coastal adaptation strategies to tackle sea level rise," Post-Print hal-03412421, HAL.
    2. Leon HAUSER & Roberta BONI & Philip S.J. MINDERHOUD & Pietro TEATINI & Marie-Noëlle WOILLEZ & Rafael ALMAR & Selasi Yao AVORNYO & Kwasi APPEANING ADDO, 2023. "A scoping study on coastal vulnerability to relative sealevel rise in the Gulf of Guinea," Working Paper da6cc701-670f-4e44-bf9c-c, Agence française de développement.
    3. Vladimir J. Alarcon & Anna C. Linhoss & Christopher R. Kelble & Paul F. Mickle & Gonzalo F. Sanchez-Banda & Fernando E. Mardonez-Meza & Joseph Bishop & Steven L. Ashby, 2022. "Coastal inundation under concurrent mean and extreme sea-level rise in Coral Gables, Florida, USA," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 111(3), pages 2933-2962, April.

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